What is the purpose?
The purpose of threshold data is to get an idea of what teams care about in pre-draft athletic testing. If you find a really narrow trait that they keep drafting over and over again with a position, you’ve likely found a good indicator of what they’ll look for in the upcoming draft.
How do you pick the range of data?
By using staff charts. Find out when the most important decision-makers currently in the room began having a prominent voice.
So if Team X has had their GM in place since 2009, their head coach in place since 2011, and their personnel director in place since 2012, you’d mine the data from 2012-present, since that’s the time period that the current regime all came together.
If a team has an all new staff, or relatively new staff, it’s a bit more of junk science. Instead of harvesting old data from an old regime, we take the most important decision-makers in the war room and look at how their previous teams drafted.
Take Buffalo as an example: GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott technically weren’t together for their first draft in Buffalo. The scouting department is pretty much brand new. The data we harvested was from Buffalo’s 2017 draft, as well as what the Dolphins did from 2015-2017 when Joe Schoen was director of player personnel, what the Chiefs did from 2014-2017 when Marvin Allen was director of college scouting, and what the Panthers did from 2015-2016 when Beane was assistant GM.
How do you come up with the prototype?
Exactly how you would think: we take the testing data from each position and average it out. The average is then the prototype. The minimum threshold is the absolute lowest the team has ever picked, and the apex is the absolute highest the team has ever picked.
- Bills Quarterbacks
- Bills Running Backs
- Bills Wide Receivers
- Bills Tight Ends
- Bills Centers (Not enough data to create thresholds)
- Bills Guards
- Bills Tackles (Not enough data to create thresholds)
- Bills Defensive Tackles
- Bills Edge
- Bills Linebackers
- Bills Cornerbacks
- Bills Safeties
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