If the Buffalo Bills had managed to hold on to Tremaine Edmunds, many fans would quickly point to improving the offensive line as the most important task for Brandon Beane this offseason. Lackluster play from free agent G Roger Saffold, the wildly inconsistent play of RT Spencer Brown, and the sword of Damocles that is Mitch Morse’s concussion history all support this sentiment. New G Conner McGovern looks like a solid addition, but opinion on the line overall is still unsettled, and many in Bills Mafia expect (more like demand) the team to add on the OL in the 2023 NFL Draft. How does this year’s group of prospects compare to the Bills’ physical archetypes?

Building on the work we did for the Bills’ measurables, it’s time to start comparing this year’s draft class to the physical traits of the players the Bills have rostered. “Rostered” is an important distinction here because those 2017 and 2018 teams still had numerous players on the roster that were rollovers from the previous administration, and some of those players’ measurables distort the average. “Rostered” also does not include players who were cut before the season started but were drafted. Ultimately, we’re looking for how this year’s draft class stacks up against who has played for the Bills.

Previous articles:

• DB
• Skill Positions
• LB

Bills’ Specific Relative Athletic Score

We’ve talked a lot about RAS, to the point that you should have a cursory understanding of Kent Lee Platte’s work. What we’re looking at now is similar, just minus all the intelligence and leg work. To boil down all the measurable data we get on prospects from the combine and pro days relative to those of the players the Bills have rostered, I created the Bills’ Relative Athletic Size, colloquially known as BRA Size because I am forever a 12-year-old boy and it makes me giggle.

McBeane Era Measurables: IOL 

The chart from the Bills’ Measurables series has the average combine measurements by each year of the McBeane regime, as well as the average for the whole six years (Blue). Each score was calculated for standard deviation, creating the +/- 68% lines (Gray), and the +/- 95% lines (Yellow).

The colorful chart below gives you the measurables that are currently available for each 2023 NFL Draft prospect. Their scores in each column have been formatted according to the one standard deviation from averages of the McBeane Era Bills by position. For example, the average 40-Yard-Dash time for Bills’ IOL in the McBeane Era is 5.22, with a standard deviation of 0.14, so any time within 5.09 – 5.36 falls within one standard deviation. One standard deviation accounts for ~68% of all players the Bills have rostered. A second standard deviation accounts for ~95% of all players, but really you can just look at the range because of how far out a second deviation goes.

Results that are worse, are in red. Results that are within the range are yellow. Results that are better are in green. So, an IOL prospect who weighs less than 304.1 lbs is in red for weight. Say that same prospect ran a 10 Yard Split that was under 1.75. That result would still be in green because in that category, lower is better.

To determine BRA Size, a player is given 1 point for each yellow category and 1.5 points for each green category. No points are removed for red – like the old baseball scout adage goes, “Once a player has demonstrated a skill, they own it,” so we won’t be subtracting from a 40 time because their hands are small. The players you’ll see in this chart are only from the combine for brevity’s sake. If you want to see all prospects and pro days results, use this link:

Notes on IOL

• The 4th Rd+ could be a time for athletic freaks with Anthony Bradford, Sidy Sow, and Jon Gaines
• Erik Turner’s draft crush John Michael Schmitz with a solid 8

Schmitz (@jmschmitz1999) is one of “my guys” in this draft pic.twitter.com/XZJgMZLtcy

— Cover 1 (@Cover1) February 4, 2023

McBeane Era Measurables: OT

Notes on OT:

• Latest Draft Twitter sensation Darnell Wright scored two more yellows at this pro day, to bring his full BRA Size up to 10.5.
• Peter Skoronski’s 9.5 would at OT would be an 11 at IOL for the prospect who has been often projected to become a G.
• Cody Mauch would have scored in the red for front teeth.

Conclusion

Please know that I am fully aware these spreadsheets don’t replace any of the work on evaluating prospects from their film, medicals, interviews, etc. I would argue with you if you said it does. This is simply information to put prospects into a McBeane context, and no one else was doing it. Trust me. I looked everywhere. The Bills could very well draft a player who doesn’t rank highly in BRA Size, but that gives us information as well. There would have to be components to his game on film that encourage the Bills to overlook their tendencies.

**This work is not possible without the combine and pro day spreadsheets by Alex Katson (@alexkatson on Twitter). Give him a follow if this work lights your fire.

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