Draft assessment has been my line of focus this draft season, and now that the draft is completed, we’re all supposed to give grades, right? Grades are fun, but the basis for them should be a large part of the consideration. If the grades you’re reading are pretending to tell you who will be the best player or have the best career, it’s time to move on. There are too many wildly impactful variables like coaching, scheme fit, scheme change over time, player desire, and medical information that any of us on the outside are kidding ourselves to say we can predict. Positional Surplus Value There are newer ways of evaluating draft success, and some folks give out grades for those too, but they have their own flaws. If you follow me on Twitter (@lowbuffa), you’ve heard me talking about the work Kevin Cole is doing on his site Unexpected Points. He and PFF’s Timo Riske have been working on value-based draft evaluation. The foundation of the method moves away from player performance, which can only be evaluated over time on the field, and shifts toward contractual value as the main factor in ascertaining how well a GM performed. Simply … Continue reading 2023 Draft Recap: Bills’ Value and Trends