2023 NFL Draft: 3 best prop bets for Round 1


If you’re like me, the 2023 NFL Draft could not come quickly enough. I’ve had enough of everybody’s mocks, all the conjecture, rumor, tomfoolery, innuendo, out-uendo, and the fictional ramblings of outright lunatics. I’m done. Please let something real happen. Like winning money. Money is real, and the NFL Draft is another chance to bring some actual, free money home.

Before we get started, I want to let you know that I can’t make any of these bets. Typically, I would put my money where my keyboard is, and wager on each bet in the article, but my home state doesn’t allow betting on the draft. So, while I can’t profit, I’m also not risking anything. If that changes how you feel about these recommendations, I understand.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Number 2 Overall Pick – CJ Stroud +500

There is a significant amount of smoke around the idea of the Texans taking one of the top defensive players in the draft, like Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. There have also been reports that Houston is not universally sold on Stroud. I call lying season.

The Texans have Davis Mills as their starting QB, and the remaining free agents are not franchise building blocks. Stroud is an unquestioned top-two QB in this draft and spent quite a bit of time as the favorite to go No. 1.

Also, there is a chance – small, but real – that Houston trades out of this pick to a team like the Raiders or Lions, who have draft capital and a significant need at QB.  If the Texans truly don’t believe in Stroud, they could be convinced to trade out and try to get an impact player later while also adding more picks to bolster one of league’s worst rosters.

Recommendation: I think the reports Houston doesn’t like Stroud are a smokescreen, but he’s also not the greatest QB prospect in that last decade, so: Stroud to go #2, +500 0.25 units.

Opening the Bills: Examining Buffalo’s cornerbacks ahead of 2023 NFL Draft

Number of Wide Receivers Drafted – Over 3.5 -106

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Jordan Addison
  • Zay Flowers
  • Quentin Johnson

Each of those WRs projects safely into the first round at mock aggregate sites like Grinding The Mocks.

Even if this year’s WR class is thinner compared to last year’s, there is still a solid group of top-end talent. Add in the tempting speed of Jalin Hyatt and the quickness of Josh Downs and there are two more WRs with an outside shot at hitting the over.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 WR drafted in the 1st Rd -106, 1u

Number 4 Overall Pick – Will Levis +130

In my predictive mock, CJ Stroud goes number two, and the Raiders trade up to No. 3 to take Anthony Richardson. Even if neither of those things happen, Will Levis is still the favorite to go to the Colts. If I’m wrong about Houston still drafting Stroud, they likely pick one of the top two defensive players in this draft. If another team is trading up with the Cardinals, it seems more plausible that team is banking on the physical gifts of Anthony Richardson.

It is lying season, but Levis to Indy makes sense in several ways.

Recommendation: Overall #4 Pick: Will Levis +130, 0.5u


The draft is an “expect the unexpected” event, and that is generally the opposite of what bettors are looking for. The drama of surprise is what gets us to tune into a sporting event with no sports, zero action, and long stretches of nothing but talking heads. So, bettor beware, but having a chance to rake in some free money spices up those talking head monologues.

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!