The Buffalo Bills bounced back after their first loss of the season by bumping the birds 23-20 down in Baltimore in a Week 4 clash. Another game in the books means a larger sample size of stats to evaluate and more “would you believe me if I said…” stats for our Greg Vorse to share as we hit the quarter mark of the season with Buffalo sitting at 3-1.
Would You Believe Me If I Said… we used to worry about Josh Allen being able to throw for 300 yards?
It was 28 games into Josh Allen’s career before he “FINALLY” eclipsed the 300-yard mark in one game, doing it in Week 1 of 2020. I went on TV after every game his first two seasons and waxed poetic about how it wasn’t a big deal that he hadn’t hit that milestone. It’s a meaningless number that we’ve given meaning to. While I still think all that is true about 300 yards, we have now hit a point in Allen’s career that it’s frustrating when he doesn’t go for 300. The quarterback has 1,227 yards in four games, or is tossing 307 yards per game. His ten passing touchdowns are also just one off the league lead. Not to mention, he is pacing the Bills’ rushing attack…more on that later.
Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills’ own halftime adjustments?
I have to give credit for this one to my Greg from another mother who pointed out on Twitter that the Bills have dominated the third quarter so far this season. Seeing his tweet made me look deeper at the entire second half. So far this season, McDermott, Frazier, and Dorsey have coached the Bills to a 63-7 advantage. That breaks down to winning each second half by an average of 15.75 to 1.75. The Bills’ differential in just the second half is 56. Those 56 points are also the Bills’ total for point differential in 2022, which tops this season. Let’s talk more about that next.
How about Half-time adjustments?
2022 3rd Quarter Scoring
— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) October 2, 2022
Would You Believe Me If I Said… normal and advanced stats love the Bills?
I have told you in previous weeks how much Football Outsiders’ DVOA and Pro Football Focus’s grades say about the Bills. In short, they love the Bills and a lot of what is happening in Orchard Park. Even with that, I still get “that’s what the nerds think” type comments from social media and football fans I interact with in real life. Well, the best old-school stat to show how dominant a team is as a whole is point differential. If you don’t know what that is, point differential is simply the points your team has scored minus the points your team has allowed. Entering Week 5, the Bills have scored 114 points (fifth most in the NFL) and allowed 58 (second fewest in the NFL). Do the math and that is a differential of +56, which is number one in the league. It’s number one by a wide margin as well. Second place is currently the unbeaten Eagles, who are at +44, or three points per game worse in the differential.
Would You Believe Me If I Said… Jordan Poyer is on pace to have the greatest intercepting season in the history of the world?
You should! It’s true! Through four games, Bills’ safety Jordan Poyer currently leads the NFL with four interceptions. The crazy thing is he has done that in just three games. To keep the math easy for my hyperbolic statement, let’s go with four picks in four games or one per game. The easy math tells you that the all-pro is pacing towards having 17 interceptions in 2022. The record for most picks in a season is 14 by Night Train Lane (If you’re not aware, that’s a real name) for the Rams in 1952. I didn’t even realize they passed the ball 14 times in a season 70 years ago. To bring things a little closer to our current decade, Cowboys’ Trevon Diggs had 11 INTs last year, but that is still six off of the pace of Poyer. I’m not sure how the Bills afford to pay everyone, but it would hurt to see the pending free agent in another jersey next season.
The #Bills are going to have some difficult decisions to make in the next couple of off-seasons with Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds, Gabriel Davis, and Ed Oliver all due new contracts. #BillsMafia #GoBills #PayPo
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) October 4, 2022
Would You Believe Me If I Said… Josh Allen is the Bills’ run game?
This one isn’t a shock to many of you, but how much the Wyoming product is relied on in the Buffalo run game is wild. Allen leads the team with 183 rushing yards. The next closest is running back Devin Singletary’s 129. The Bills have two rushing touchdowns this season, both from their quarterback. Allen is averaging 6.1 yards per carry on his 30 attempts. That also leads the team. Of guys that have run more than once (Isaiah McKenzie has a six-yard run), the next most is 5.3 yards with Zack Moss having 84 yards on 16 carries. In totality, the Bills’ rushing attack doesn’t look awful. They’re in the top half of the league in yards, yards per carry, 20+ yard runs, and a few other categories. This is while the team ranks last in PFF’s run block grade. In conclusion, Josh Allen is the kid that does all the work on a group project and everyone else begs him to put their name on it.