The Buffalo Bills are entering “must-win” territory, and if you’ve read any of my previous stories or social media posts, I hate that term unless it is factual. If the Bills go 5-0 to get to 11-6, they’re in the postseason. If they go 4-1 to get to 10-7, there is a better chance than not that they make the playoffs. Anything worse than that, and we are in full-on pray, beg, borrow, hope, and steal scenarios. That all starts with Buffalo visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. As I write this, Buffalo is a 1.5-point dog to KC. Not the best since all six of its losses are by six or fewer points. None of that matters once they take the field, though. What does matter is who scores more points. How does Buffalo make sure its number is bigger on the scoreboard? I’m glad you asked! Here are my five keys to a Buffalo Bills victory when they take the field for a 4:25 kickoff Sunday in Missouri.
Score Early and Often
Duh! Scoring points is the point of the game. Let’s peel back this onion a little further. Since Joe Brady became the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Buffalo has averaged 33 points per game. That would be first in the league over the entire season. Looking across the field, Kansas City averages the 11th most points per game at 22.9. You don’t need to be an aeronautical engineer to know that 33 > 23.
Run the Rock
Entering Sunday, the Chiefs are 28th in the league in yards allowed per rush at 4.6 yards per carry. They are also 19th in rushing yards per game allowed at 114.7. Conversely, the Bills’ offense is seventh and 10th in those same categories at 4.4 yards per carry and 122.3 rushing yards per game.
The Chiefs are second-best in the league at allowing sacks, just 1.4 per game. If there is a glimmer of hope in that category, they allowed three in their last game, a loss to the Packers. Green Bay averages 2.4 sacks per game, while Buffalo brings the QB down 3.4 times per game. That is good enough for third in the league. If the Packers can get after Mahomes, so can the Bills.
Slow Swift’s Sweetheart
Travis Kelce has led the Chiefs in receiving yards seven times this season. They are 5-2 in those games. KC is 3-2 in games where he isn’t the leading receiver. It’s an oversimplification, but limiting Kelce will go a long way for a Bills win.
Kick’em While They’re Down
Injuries suck, but no one is giving the Bills sympathy points for missing Matt Milano, Tre White, DaQuan Jones, Dawson Knox, etc. Maybe, just maybe, that tide is turning back in Buffalo’s favor entering Sunday. Last week, KC saw LT Donovan Smith, S Bryan Cook, and LB Drue Tranquill all go down. The Chiefs were also without RB Jerick McKinnon and LB Nick Bolton. Some may be back by Sunday at 4:25, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Buffalo if any or all missed the game.