It was stated by SB Nation’s Jason Kirk that “If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself.”
Well, since then, we’ve witnessed the once raw quarterback prospect take the Bills from perennial bottom feeders to conquering the division three straight years, winning four playoff games, and destroying record books in Buffalo and beyond.
In the paragraphs below, I am going to dissect some of the crazier stats, wilder accomplishments, and down-right insane analytics Allen has achieved in his young career.
Passing:
Josh Allen already has the top two passing seasons in the Bills’ history. His 4,544 passing yards in 2020 are the top mark with 4,407 in 2021 coming in second. He also has the fourth most all-time with Drew Bledsoe sneaking into the third slot.
Allen already has the three best seasons in terms of touchdown passes in team history. He had 37 in 2020, 36 in 2021, and 35 in 2022. Jim Kelly comes in fourth with 33 in 1991.
Allen is already third all-time in Bills’ career passing yards. His 18,397 yards in five seasons only trails Jim Kelly and Joe Ferguson who are first and second, respectively. If Allen were to add another 18,397 yards over his next five seasons, he would pass Kelly for the top spot in franchise history which is currently 35,467.
Allen is already third all-time in Bills’ career passing touchdowns. His 138 touchdowns in five seasons also only trails Kelly and Ferguson. Just like with passing yards, if he kept up the trend over his next five years, he would also own that record in Bills’ history.
The Bills have had eight 400-yard passing games since the NFL/AFL merger. Four of those games have come from Allen.
In 2022, Allen led the NFL in completed air yards with 2,607, per SIS Data Hub. For context, Patrick Mahomes was 253 yards behind Allen in fourth place.
NextGenStats ranked Allen first (QBs with over 300 attempts) in their (AYTS) Air Yards to the Sticks with a +.7. What is AYTS? “AYTS shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the first down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after the catch.”
Allen has attempted 329 passes over 20 yards in his career. Those attempts broken down by percentage going left/middle/right look like this: 34%/33%/33%.
Allen’s 98-yard TD pass to Gabe Davis in a 38-3 win over the Steelers was the longest TD play of 2022. It was the only play last season to top the 90-yard mark. It’s also the longest pass play since 2011.
Bills’ Most Important Players (not named Josh Allen) Entering 2023: Recap
Rushing:
Josh Allen, a known football thrower, is already 11th in all-time rushing yards for the Bills with 3,087. He’s averaged 762.5 rushing yards per year over the last two seasons. If he does that in 2023, he will move into the top five in all-time rushing yards for Buffalo.
Allen is third all-time in Bills’ rushing touchdowns with 38. If he kept that pace up for the next five years, he would be one behind Thurman Thomas for the most of any Bills player.
Josh Allen converted 14 of his 17 third and fourth down scrambles into first downs last season, per NFL Stats and Info. That’s an 82.4% clip. For context, Justin Fields converted 20 out of 32 or 62.5%.
Allen has the second most rushing yards by a QB since 2018. His 3,087 yards only trail Lamar Jackson’s 4,437.
Allen has the most rushing yards after contact by any QB on scrambles since 2018. His 771 yards top Lamar Jackson’s 638 by 133, per NextGenStats.
Allen ranked first in Football Outsiders DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) for quarterback rushing with 227. He also ranked first in 2018 and has never been outside the top four.
Allen had the longest run for the Bills in 2022, ripping off a 44-yard run in the 32-29 win over Miami. Allen also had the Bills’ longest run in 2018.
Other:
The Bills have won 37 games over the last three years. That is the most over three years in franchise history. Tying a stretch from 1990-1992.
The Bills led the NFL in average point differential the past two seasons. They accomplished that feat two other times in franchise history, in 1990 and 1964, per Pro Football Reference.
Allen’s 71 consecutive starts is the current leader for most by a quarterback… assuming Tom Brady is retired.
Allen’s 91.6 overall grade is the highest overall grade for any QB, per Pro Football Focus.
Allen’s 92.7 run grade is the highest of any non-QB, per Pro Football Focus.
Conclusion:
If Allen is able to stay healthy… If Allen plays for 12 or more productive seasons… If Allen spends the bulk of his career with Buffalo… I know it’s a lot of ifs, but if he does those things, Josh Allen will destroy the Bills’ franchise record books and leave a pretty indelible mark on the NFL.
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