An unceremonious end to another Buffalo Bills’ season has, rightfully, led to another round of criticisms. Among 2022 critiques is one focused on Brandon Beane’s draft history. It’s a debate that centers on Beane’s draft “hits” and “misses” but one which far too often ignores what it means to find value in the draft. In the NFL Draft, value is relative. Since draft-based assets are divvied based on team success value realized must be weighed against draft position. As NFL fans, should we expect the #31 overall pick to produce at the same level as the #1 overall pick? Absolutely not. When considering whether a GM “hit” or “missed” on a pick the number of the pick is just as important as the player selected. This leads to the point of this article, a value-based look at Brandon Beane’s track record in the NFL Draft. To accomplish this we will utilize two data points, Approximate Value (AV)[1] and Expected Draft Value (EDV)[2]. Dividing AV by EDV will provide us with the Value Return (VR) where 100% is the expectation. The below analysis leverages VR and places each of Brandon Beane’s 39 career draft picks into six “hit” and “miss” buckets. … Continue reading Brandon Beane’s Draft History and Finding Value in the NFL Draft