NFL Week 11: Top 3 prop bets for Bills vs. Browns

11/19/2022
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Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season brings the Cleveland Browns to Orchard Park, scratch that. FIVE FEET of snow has redirected both teams to Ford Field in Detroit. It’s a huge change for the teams, fans, and especially us bettors. Even if the Bills had been able to clear the stadium of snow, Orchard Park might very well be a whirlwind inside a hurricane wrapped up in a tornado on Sunday afternoon. Whether you’re Team Dome or Team Elements, we all agree football is more predictable when the weather is not a concern, and your bankroll wants as much predictability as possible.

Also predictable: Three Props and a Cloud of Dust getting back on track. We recorded another winning week against the Vikings, going 2-1. Tyler Bass got a second FG, and Za’Darius Smith got a sack on Josh Allen. Singletary missed the over on 50.5 rush yards largely because he inexplicably got only one carry over the last 20 minutes or so of game time and finished at 47 rushing yds. We’re going to see Motor below again because of the Browns’ unimpressive run D. Let’s get that analysis money.

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First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

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National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
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Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

All the snow in Buffalo created another week of uncertainty and upheaval right on the heels of Elbow Watch Week. Moving the game to Detroit stabilizes the field conditions, which should make for a game more aligned with the statistical patterns for each team. Each NFL game is weird in its own way and injuries happen (The Bills likely win last week if not for Edmunds going out in the second half), but our game script doesn’t need to predict the whole game. We just need enough of an idea to pick out a few betting lines.

Let’s start with the Browns’ biggest weakness, their run defense, per SIS (rank).

EPA/A 0.06 29
Y/A 4.8 26
RUSH TD% 6.1 32
Y/G 131 22
vs 11
YAC 6.1 30
YAC/A 3.5 32
EPA/A 0.35 32

They’re not particularly good vs the pass either:

Browns’ Pass D EPA EPA/Play
All plays 4.42 (22) 0.01 (22)
Any Motion 18.12 (30) 0.14 (29)
Any Play Action -8.79 (5) -0.11 (5)
Any Motion/PA 1.84 (11) 0.04 (20)

The Browns turning into a defensive behemoth on play action is one of the stranger incongruities we’ve come across, but the overall pass defense is below average. For the last few weeks, Buffalo’s offense has vaporized in the second half, but in the first half, the offense remains strong.

Pt Differential
Wk 1-10 Wks 8-10
Q1 21 18
Q2 42 17
Q3 33 -11
Q4 0 -23
Total 96 1

For the game script, coming out to an early lead is as important as ever: get the Browns away from Nick Chubb, and get the Bills into taking advantage of Cleveland’s bad run D. The Bills have to take some of the pressure off of Josh Allen, and, for this week at least, the Brown’s should oblige.

For a complete breakdown, check out UberHansen’s Game Matchups Preview. 

Friday’s Injury Reports

Also, be sure to check the Inactive Reports before game time.

Last updated: 11/20 7:00 am

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards

O U
BETUS 47.5 -115 -115
CSR
DK 47.5 -115 -115
FD 44.5 -110 -110
MGM 47.5 -115 -115

DPJ still seems a little under the radar as CLE’s WR2, but he has gone over this total in all but Weeks 2 and 3, and his receiving yards over the last month go 74, 71, 81, and 99. While Jordan Poyer should return for this week, David Njoku is also still questionable, which would mean more targets for the Browns WR as backup TE Harrison Bryant gets about 3 targets per game – even with Njoku out.

The game script calls for an early Bills lead. Against 4 man rushes (which the Bills use 80% of the time), DPJ is 4th amongst WRs in yards per route run when the Brownies are down by 3 or more. The only players ahead of him are some guys named Hill, Waddle, and Lockett.

Recommendation: Re Yds o44.5 at FD, 0.5u

Browns vs. Bills: Top 5 Storylines to Watch in NFL Week 11

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards

O U
BETUS 50.5 -115 -115
CSR
DK 53.5 -115 -115
FD 48.5 -110 -110
MGM 54.5 -110 -120

Did you read those rush D stats in the game script? Here’s another: CLE is tied for 31st in Adjusted Line Yards (Football Outsiders) at 5.09. Here’s even more if you’re still not convinced:

CLE Rush D vs 11
YAC 6.1(30)
YAC/Att 3.5(32)
EPA/Att 0.35(32)

The Bills run 11 personnel on 75% of their offensive snaps. The Bills have to have more success running the ball this week, especially if they can get an early lead. If they can’t run the ball this week, they are simply incapable of a dependable running game.

Recommendation: Ru yds o48.5 at FD, 0.5u

Nick Chubb Longest Rush

O U
BETUS
CSR
DK 17.5 -120 -110
FD 17.5 -122 -108
MGM 16.5 -155 +115

Credit this one to Ryan McCrystal from Sharp Football, but we’re not worried about where credit goes as long as the free money rolls in. McCrystal has been on this particular prop all season, and Chubb has not disappointed. As McCrystal notes in his Sharp Football Props column:

Despite the Miami Dolphins dominating the Browns last week, Chubb managed to break off a 33-yard run. Chubb has a run of 20 or more yards in 12 of his last 13 games dating back to last season.

While the Bills’ overall rush defense numbers aren’t terrible, those aggregate numbers are impacted by the fact that the Bills have had several weeks where they were ahead and opponents were passing. That is still possible in this game, which is why the longest rush is chosen over rush yards. The Bills’ Run Defense Boom Rate is 14th in the league at 9.1%, which means they give up a rush worth more than 1 point in EPA close to every tenth carry.

Since Week 8, their surrendered Boom Rate is the 6th worst in the NFL at 12.2%. Add to that the fact that the Bills are 31st in Broken Tackle + Missed Tackles at 14.6%, and Chubb has the seventh-best percentage of broken tackles for all players with more than 75 carries. Tremaine Edmunds and Groot Rousseau are already out for this matchup.

Recommendation: Longest rush o17.5 at DK, 0.5u. This had been o16.5 at MGM for -125, but you can see they really upped the vig. Given Chubb’s talent, proclivity within this prop, and the Bills missing key run defenders, you could take this up to 19.5, so take the extra yard and the money at DK.

Conclusion

Seriously, don’t lose to this thing.

It is completely unacceptable to lose to this mascot. No matter where the game is played. It has a ferret on its head. Do not lose to this thing, Bills, I beg you.

Record: 18-9, +4.5u

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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