Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season brings the Denver Broncos charging into Orchard Park to face your Buffalo Bills. The dust will fly as these two stampedes come head to head. Russell Wilson, Sean Payton, and the Broncos are not the joke a 50+ point loss to Miami made them seem, and the Bills have seemed hog-tied on offense for a few weeks. The Bills are favored by seven points coming into this tussle, and they have to win the rest of the games they are favored in to have a real shot at the playoffs.

Last week was a disappointment on the field and in the props.

• Dalton Kincaid o38.5 receiving yards, -114 at FD, 0.5u, Result: 81 receiving yards✅
• Josh Allen longest rush o11.5 yards, +100, 0.5u, Result: long rush of 11 yards❌
• Gabe Davis longest reception o19.5, -120 at MGM, 0.5u, Result: long reception of 0 yards❌

Allen had two rushes of exactly 11 yards. Two. That’s the kind of beat that lets you know today ain’t your day. The fact that Davis had zero catches against a team that was one of the worst in the league against the deep middle makes you throw your hands in the air. I still think the analysis was solid on both of those calls.

Still believing in the process, we march on.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
2. Don’t chase a bet.
3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

When the Bills have the ball:

In Weeks 1-4, the Bills used the second most 12 personnel (one RB, two TE) in the NFL. Since Dawson Knox’s injury, the Bills have returned to primarily using 11p. Since Week 5, they have used 11p 76% of the time, which ranks fifth-most. while the Broncos have faced the third-fewest pass attempts out of 11p, the rate stats they have surrendered are mostly in the middle of the pack, ranking between 10-15.

When looking specifically at tight ends receiving out of 11p, Denver is one of the best teams at defending that position since Week 5 onward. They have allowed six completions on eight attempts, both of which are bottom-five totals for those counting stats. Their Yards/Attempt, Yards/Game, and Positive Play % surrendered are top three defensive performances. They have allowed zero Boom plays to TEs out of 11 since Week 5. Unfortunately, you are not going to find any Dalton Kincaid props below (Yes, a small part of me died writing that sentence).

The Broncos’ run defense has given up a broken or missed tackle 12.3% of rushes out of 11p, which is fifth most. Even with those broken tackles though, the Broncos’ Boom rate is ninth best since Week 5. With numbers that solid, maybe we will see more Quinton Morris and Reggie Gilliam along with Kincaid, and watch the Bills run more out of 12p. Since Week 5 against 12p, the Broncos have given up

• Fifth-most Rush Yards/Game
• Ninth-most Rush Yards/Attempt
• Third-worst Positive Play %
• Second-highest rate of Broken + Missed Tackles.

With all of those potential weaknesses though, the Bills have only run out of 12p 10 times in the last five games.

When the Broncos have the ball:

Over the last five games, Denver has used a mix of 10, 11, and 21 personnel. Payton’s crew is downright bad at operating out of No Huddle, Motion, or with Play Action. Whether running or passing, they rank in the bottom three when using any of those offensive tools. They are middle of the pack when using Shotgun or RPOs. They have the most relative success running from 11p and 12p.

The Bills have given up close to 200 rush yards to runs from 12p since Week 5, which is the seventh most. Their rate states are generally between 10-15, but the 55 attempts they have faced (third most) suggest teams are attacking them on the ground from 12p. For the Broncos running out of 11p, the Bills have let opposing teams earn 4.9 Yards/Carry, which is the fifth most since Week 5.

The Broncos are unimpressive when it comes to their passing game, but there are enough injuries on the Bills’ defense to make any offense viable.

A note from Warren Sharp’s podcast on The Ringer: Denver has been really good with their opening script, and the Bills defense has been repeatedly taken advantage of early. If you want a bonus bet, consider the Q1 total over 9.5 at -110 or even DEN first drive for TD or FGA, both of which are +400.

Prediction: We’ll give the Bills home-field advantage in what will be closer than we’d like to admit: DEN 24 – BUF 27

For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Be sure to check the inactives about an hour before game time.

Friday's #DENvsBUF injury report:

📰 » https://t.co/1pkzDTr8fC pic.twitter.com/bvrLbeVVgK

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 10, 2023

Saturday injury report pic.twitter.com/snvA5W9B76

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) November 11, 2023

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Recommendations

Khalil Shakir Receptions

We’re going to go back to the DVOA versus receivers well. Denver ranks 32nd and 31st against WR2 and WR3 respectively. The Gabe Davis no-show last week has scared me off at least for this week (watch him go off), and Shakir’s growing usage and rapport with Allen has me leaning toward this plus-money bet.

Shakir’s snap share has risen each week with the exception of Week 6 into 7, and even that can be forgiven for the massive jump he made going into Week 8. Combine that with four, six, and four receptions in the last three weeks, which makes him third on the team in those weeks (Diggs and Kincaid).

Recommendation: Khalil Shakir receptions o3.5, +130, 0.5

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards

The Broncos have not used 11p that often compared to the rest of the league (51%, ranking 27th), but when they do operate from 11, they throw (73%). With the losses of Tre White, DaQuan Jones, and Matt Milano, the BIlls’ D has struggled against 11p. Over the last five weeks, the Bills rank on selected stats against 11p;

• Dead last in Yards/Game surrendered, EPA allowed, and Positive Play % allowed
• Third-highest completion % allowed
• Fourth-worst in EPA/Pass Play
• Sixth-worst in Passer Rating Against
• Ninth-worst Boom Rate (an offensive play earning more than 1 point in EPA)

Perine has 111 yards on 10 catches from 12 targets out of 11p since Week 5. The Bills have faced the third most attempts to RBs since Week 5 at 30 and given up the third most Yards/Game (44.8), the eighth most Yards/Att, fifth highest completion percentage (90%), and the highest positive play rate (60%).

Recommendation: Samaje Perine o12.5 receiving yards, -114 at FD, 0.5u

Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards

The Broncos have run out of 12p 40 times since Week 5, and their success rate in doing so is fifth best in the league. In that same time, the Bills have given up the eighth most Yards/Game and Yards After Contact/Carry to 12p. McLaughlin started to get more snaps when Javonte Williams missed time in Weeks 4-5. Since Week 5, he has 24 carries for 167 yards, a 6.95 YPC. Out of 12p, McLaughlin has averaged a full 7.0 YPC since Week 5. He has fewer carries than Williams (19-12) but Williams doesn’t reach 4.0 YPC with his opportunities (3.8).

McLaughlin isn’t a huge broken tackle runner, but he is rarely hit at the line or stuffed, and that 6.95 Yards/Carry since Week 5 is the seventh highest for all players with five or more carries over the past month. And the Bills might provide the Broken Tackle + Missed Tackle Rate by themselves, since they have the seventh highest rate versus 12p at 10.8%, and overall their BT + MT% is fifth worst in the league at 11.9% since Week 5.

McLaughlin has gone over this total for five straight weeks. It should become six.

Recommendation: Jaleel McLaughlin o18.5 rush yards, -120, 0.5u

Conclusion

I struggled to find a Bills’ prop this week, but that might be a projection from a waning belief that they still have a reasonable shot at being a championship-caliber team this season: the defensive injuries have predictably been too much for the defense to overcome, and the offensive inconsistency has made a mess of the now slim defensive margins. There are still plenty of opportunities for free money though, and we will drown our pain in piles of cash.

Record: 16-11, 59.3%, +10.73u