After resting up and hopefully getting even healthier, the Buffalo Bills take on a now seemingly bottomed-out Green Bay Packers team in Week 8. The Bills left us lonely for a whole week, but they’re trying to make it up to us with a primetime game, just us and them in a special time and place, and they’ve brought a gift of the largest spread Aaron Rodgers has ever faced.
Three Props & a Cloud of Dust returns to you, also with a wonderful gift – the possibility of free money. We’re coming off a big victory of our own after going undefeated in back-to-back weeks, and in the Chiefs’ game, we watched Motor Singletary bring us even more money by going over 2.5 receptions, raked in plus money with Josh Allen throwing 3 TD’s, and filled our wallets with more than 13.5 second-half points from the Bills. Where can the stats swell our bankrolls this week? Let’s get that analysis money.
First Things First
Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Don’t chase a bet.
- Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
- Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
- See Rule #1.
If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.
National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700
Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.
The 2022 Packers are not the juggernaut of the last two seasons. Their DVOA has slipped from second in 2021 for the regular season to tenth so far in 2022. Tenth is still really solid, but that ranking is underpinned more by other teams being worse: Green Bay’s offensive DVOA rating has dropped from 20.2% in 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, and this team looks and feels like less than half of what they’ve been. Minus Davante Adams, it appears the Packers are still trying to figure out how to operate.
Their defense is still operating against the pass, though. Overall, the Green Bay pass defense is 10th in EPA per pass play, and their pass DVOA ranks 11th. The Cheesehead’s D has an outstanding player at each level: Rashan Gary, De’Vondre Campbell, and Jaire Alexander are all very good players and should be respected by OCs throughout the league for pass defense.
The run defense is another story. When the Houston Texans are the only team worse than yours at anything, you have a problem area. Green Bay’s run DVOA ranks 31st and their EPA allowed per rush is ninth worst.
The bottom line: the Bills should be able to control the Packers on defense, but their offense could struggle more than Bills Mafia has come to expect. While the Packers’ offense plays into the Bills’ strengths, the opposite is true for the Packers’ D.
Watch for a game where the Bills seemingly move the ball well until reaching the red zone, where truncated space makes the Packers’ pass defense even more effective, and the Bills are not built to take full advantage of the Packers’ poor run defense. The Bills should win, but take the under.
For a full run down, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.
Last updated: 10/30/22 4:33pm
Aaron Rodgers’ Passing Yards
Rodgers has surpassed 242.5 passing yards only three times on the season, and one of those was just barely scraping by with 246. On average, the Bills give up only 227.7 pass yards per game, and that number includes garbage time, in case you are worried about a backdoor over.
- Packers use screens more than any other team in the league at 19%. The Bills rank fifth in yards/game allowed on screens. The Bills excel against a fundamental piece of the Packers’ passing game.
- Of the 24 passers with 17 or more attempts, Rodgers is second in 20+ yard pass attempts but 18th in completion percentage with 30.3%
- Bills use 4 rushers on 80% of snaps, and Rodgers ranks 39th in avg depth of throw (6.2 yds) against four rushers.
Rodgers’ play style this year plays right into what the Bills are trying to encourage on defense: short passing with inefficient deep throws.
Recommendation: u237.5 at DK, 0.5u
Gabe Davis Receiving Yards
Green Bay’s No. 1 corner is Jaire Alexander and their No. 2 is Eric Stokes. They primarily stay on the right and left sides, respectively. Alexander has taken 224 of his 319 coverage snaps on the right, and Stokes has taken 326 of his 474 snaps to the left. This consistency potentially gives the Bills advantage by letting Green Bay have what they think they want. Aligning Stefon Diggs against the Packers’ #1 CB to the right should create a matchup between Stokes and Davis on the left. Stokes has given up an 87% completion rate, 13.4 yards/rec, and a QB rating of 129.7 on 23 targets. The Average Depth of Target against Stokes is easily the highest amongst the GB CBs at 11.4 yds. when teams throw deep versus Green Bay, they throw on Stokes with relative success.
When the Bills throw deep, it is either Diggs or Davis. The eye test alone suggests that fact, but stats also confirm it: for Air Yards of 15+, Diggs (17) and Davis (10 in two fewer games) have more than half of Allen’s 45 targets, and no other player has more than four (Shakir!).
In the game script, we talked about the effectiveness of the Packers’ pass D. They haven’t faced Josh Allen yet either. GB has the highest blitz usage in the NFL in Weeks 1-7 at 39% (SIS). Their blitz rate vs 11 personnel, which is the Bills’ most frequent grouping, is second highest (35%) but the D’s positive play rate only ranks 17th. In other words, they blitz a lot with mediocre effectiveness. Allen is the highest-rated QB in the NFL when under pressure at 106.5 (PFF), and his aDoT is three yards higher under pressure (10.7 to 7.7). It would not be surprising to see Diggs go off, but Alexander is really, really good too. Watch for Allen to take the path of lesser resistance and hit Davis often and deep.
Recommendation: o57.5 at CSR, 0.5u. Worried the 57 is too high? Take Diggs’ o6.5 rec at DK -115.
Tyler Bass FGs
Check the game script. Green Bay’s pass D is solid. While the Bills are the overall superior team, we should expect GB’s D to hold stout a few times in the red zone = multiple Bass FGs.
Recommendation: o1.5 at DK, 0.5u.
The Bills should win – I even expect them to cover that big spread. But be prepared for a lower-scoring game: Bills 27 – GB 13.
Tail or fade, let me see those winnings on Twitter @LowBuffa!
FYI, with the Bills not playing until Sunday (and my family going camping) the odds won’t get updated until mid-day Sunday.
Record to date: 14-4, +4 units