The Buffalo Bills come out on their bye hosting the Green Bay Packers Sunday night in yet another primetime game for Bills Mafia. Buffalo enters this one atop the AFC with a 5-1 record, owning the lone bye, and wins over the #2, #3, and #4 seeds. The Packers are reeling, but as many fans demanded on Twitter, this shouldn’t be seen as a “trap game” with Green Bay’s success as a franchise and having MVP QB Aaron Rodgers slinging the rock. Here are the top five things I believe Buffalo needs to do to bring another victory to Orchard Park.
The Packers entered 2022 with what we thought was going to be a great defense, but they have been mediocre, allowing the 14th most points per game (20.9). One place Green Bay has been fantastic is on third down. Through seven games, the Packers have allowed just 30% of thirds to be converted. That ranks third best in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo has been awesome on third. Josh Allen currently has a 133.3 passer rating, 560 yards, and five touchdowns in six games on third down alone. Whether Allen and the Bills can continue to flex or Green Bay stands tall on third could go a long way to determine this game’s outcome.
Run Down Rodgers
I’ve waxed poetic on here about the Bills’ pass rush. The front four rotation has constantly had four players ranked in the top 20 of Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) pass rush grade in either EDGE or Interior. So far this season, Rodgers isn’t using his legs as much as we’re used to, scrambling just twice, according to PFF. Furthermore, his pressures-to-sack percentage is 21.7, meaning that over one in five pressures ends in a sack for the Packers’ opposition. Add the Bills’ ability to create pressure with Rodgers’ ability to get sacked when pressured, and it could be a party in the backfield for Buffalo.
One area the Packers are struggling badly early in the season is their run defense. They've held only one opponent under 125 yards on the ground.@Mike_Bundt says it might provide an opportunity for the Bills to take advantage with Singletary/Cook
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) October 27, 2022
Run Your Mouth
No matter where you look on TeamRankings.com, the Bills’ run defense is legit, and the Packers’ run offense is, in the words of my 3-year-old, “capoop.” Here’s a quick look at how much these stats are in Buffalo’s favor. The Bills give up just 76.2 rushing yards per game, which is first place in the NFL. The Packers have rushed for just 64 yards per game in their last three games, good enough for 31st. When it comes to scoring on the ground, Green Bay is tied for 28th with just .4 rushing TDs per game. The Bills are allowing .7 rushing TDs per game. That’s a lot of numbers to tell you Buffalo should be able to dominate the Packers’ rushing attack.
The Packers are giving up a league-low 168.9 passing yards per game, but that shouldn’t stop them from using Josh Allen’s arm. I mean, he is the MVP favorite for a reason. His 330 passing yards per game is over 20 more than second-place Patrick Mahomes, and Allen is neck and neck in touchdowns per game with the Kansas City signal-caller. You don’t stop using your unhittable fastball because the other team favors fastballs. Also, Buffalo is coming off a huge passing game with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Know all finding the endzone in Kansas City. Keep the foot on the throat, or as I’ll write next, ALL GAS, NO BREAKS.
ALL GAS, NO BREAKS
The Bills have the third-most amount of points scored in the second half of games this season at 14.0 per game. That also counts a pair of games where Buffalo sat their main offensive weapons for the fourth quarter. Their third quarter is second-best in the league at 8.5 points per game. We saw them storm back against the Ravens and outscore the Chiefs in the second half to win those games. The Packers may be down this season, but keeping the peddle to the metal is always the best option until we are absolutely true it’s time for Dawkins to dance on the sidelines.