Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 best prop bets for NFL Week 14

12/10/2023
DB+

Coming off of the bye week most of us thought it would be a nice time to relax and have nothing stressful or weird happen and simply prepare for another must-win game against a difficult opponent. Thankfully, that is exactly what we got, right? That whole discussion can stay out of here: we’ve got money to win. That brings us back to the Kansas City Chiefs

There was no article last week during the bye, but if you follow me on Twitter you got three non-Bills props that swept. This was the second sweep in the last three weeks.

  • Tyreek Hill 110+ receiving yards, +110, 0.5u, Result: 157 receiving yards✅
  • Chris Olave o69.5 receiving yards, -115, 0.5u, Result: 119 receiving yards✅
  • Dameon Pierce o26.5 rush yards, -125, 0.5u, Result: 41 rush yards✅

Sweeps will never be promised, and Weeks 6-10 were bumpy, but it looks like this train is back on track.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

When Kansas City has the ball:

The Chiefs’ main personnel group is 11 (1 RB, 1 TE), which they use 62%, followed by 12 personnel and 13 personnel (28% and 9% respectively). Counterintuitively, the Chiefs run less out of those heavier personnel packages. KC runs out of 12 personnel at the 29th lowest rate and the 22nd rate out of 13 personnel. For the season, running from the multiple TE sets is one of the few things they don’t do really well, and their rush success ranks bear that out for both 12p (23rd) and 13p (21st).

Andy Reid’s team uses motion at the fourth highest rate on the season (65% of snaps), and they pass two out of every three times they do so (66%). Since Week 8, the Bills’ pass defense against plays using motion has been top 10 (SIS).

When the Bills have the ball:

Since Week 8, KC has used a seven-man box more than other defense (41%). The Bills’ performance against seven men in the box has been mixed:

When the Bills see seven men in the box, they run almost exactly 60% of the time (59/39). That could be either with a called play or with an alert based on the presented defense at the line. For a team that passes 57% of the time overall, that flip in propensity would indicate at least some intentionality. There is a James Cook prop below.

It will be interesting to see to what degree Dawson Knox plays. The Bills started out the season using 12p at the second highest rate at 38%, but since Week 6 they have used it the least at 6%. KC is middling against 12p whether the opponent is passing or running, but the curiosity more surrounds how new Bills Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady would utilize two TEs of the caliber of Knox and Dalton Kincaid. If Brady uses Knox for his pre-injury level of snaps – an unlikely scenario for at least his first week back from wrist surgery – then who loses snaps to Knox? Kincaid, Quinten Morris, and Khalil Shakir have been the biggest beneficiaries of the snaps Knox lost to injury. Obviously the few snaps Morris has gotten would go back to Knox, but Kincaid is a top-three target, and Shakir appears to have earned his playing time with multiple solid performances and a growing connection with Josh Allen. Personnel usage and target distribution over the next few weeks will be telling.

The Bills are the more desperate team, and they can beat anybody…as long as the good version of the team shows up.

Prediction: BUF 31 – KC 27

For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Sunday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Recommendations

Highest Scoring Half

Book  Line O U
DK 2H, -105
FD 2H, -115
MGM

Cover 1’s Ant Prohaska pulled these stats on the difference between the BIlls’ defensive performance in the first and second halves.

First half:

  • -6th in overall success rate
  • -2nd in rush EPA
  • -1st in rush success rate
  • -1st in EPA/rush
  • -1st in positive play % vs the run

Second half

  • -27th in overall success rate
  • -29th in rush EPA
  • -27th in rush success rate
  • -26th in EPA/rush
  • -19th in positive play % vs the run

Here’s defensive numbers for the Chiefs by first and second half:

While the Chiefs improve against the run in the second half without too much difference in the number of attempts, they also come back to the middle of the pack versus the pass.

Since Week 8, with a small accounting for Win Probability (Garbage Time), the Bills’ and Chiefs’ defenses are largely the same, and that’s not particularly good for either team.

Given the troubles both teams have had defensively in the second half, the dynamic quarterbacks involved, and the defenders both teams are missing due to injury, there should be more second-half points.

Recommendation: Second half as the highest scoring half, -105, 0.5u.

Khalil Shakir Longest Reception

Book  Line O U
DK 17.5 -115 -115
FD 17.5 -114 -114
MGM 17.5 -104 -125

We’ve been down this road enough times now that further explanation really isn’t necessary, but it would have been nice to get this in on Friday when the line was universally at 16.5.

Recommendation: Khalil Shakir longest reception o17.5, -105 at MGM, 0.5u

James Cook Longest Rush

Book  Line O U
DK 12.5 -120 -110
FD
MGM 12.5 -140 +105

In Warren Sharp’s gambling podcast on The Ringer network, he detailed how the Chiefs have surrendered a rush longer than 15 yards each week since Week 4. The charts above also help justify this wager, especially in the first half with KC’s problems with the run. Plus, James Cook has demonstrated his explosiveness all year and ranks fourth among all RBs with 21 runs of 10+ yards.

Recommendation: James Cook longest rush o12.5 yards, -120 at DK, 0.5u

Conclusion

After that taste of non-Bills props last week, here’s another. If you noticed where the Detroit Lions’ defense ranked on the defensive charts above, you saw how bad their pass defense has been for the last month. Recommendation: DJ Moore receiving yards o70.5, -115, 0.5u.

For the love of everything, please let’s just talk about football this coming week.

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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