Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 best prop bets for NFL Week 6

10/16/2022
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It’s Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season, and we get one of most anticipated matchups of the year with the Buffalo Bills mano a mano the Kansas City Chiefs. This should be a fantastic game. The last time these teams met gave us one of the greatest games in league history, a divisional-round playoff game in which the Chiefs overcame the Bills in overtime. The last two minutes alone were some of the greatest football theatre we will ever see. We won’t break those final minutes down any further. The point is to prepare your heart for some wild fluctuations and palpitations and your voice for loud exclamations. It will be on.

In other things that are on – us. Last week saw Three Props get back to undefeated territory with the virtual locks of a Kenny Pickett INT, a Diggs’ TD, and a Von Miller sack. We’re going to keep the energy flowing. Let’s get that analysis money.

You know you want one.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

Thankfully, the Bills’ injury report has cleared up a tremendous amount. KC’s report is less healthy on defense, but D isn’t why they are dangerous. This matchup is the NFL’s two alpha QBs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, and everyone else is at least a tier below. Period. Each QB seemingly makes a play once a week that we’ve never seen, propelling their team forward on the sheer brilliance of their talent. The game script for this matchup is fundamentally just Josh versus Pat.

Allen and Mahomes are (all per SIS)

  • 1st and 2nd in total EPA and 3rd place is 38.9% lower
  • 1st and 2nd in positive play rate for QBs with more than 115 attempts
  • 2nd and 1st in TDs
  • 4th and 2nd in TD % and QB rating
  • 4th and 1st in IQR, SIS’s advanced QB rating metric

They are unstoppable. They are every superlative. They are destined to battle for AFC supremacy for years to come. It is the new era of Brady-Manning, and thank everything that the Bills have one of them.

All of that hyperbolic praise aside, there are still defenses in this game. The best matchup in the game will be the Chiefs’ offensive line against the Bills’ defensive line. From left to right, Brown-Thuney-Humphrey-Smith-Wylie have a 4.8% Adj. Sack Rate, good for 9th in the league (Football Outsiders). That KC interior (Thuney-Humphrey-Smith) has given up 16 pressures total on the season.

Where the possibility for a Bills’ advantage lies is in the tackles. Brown has allowed 15 pressures alone and Wylie another 11. Especially with Brown, there is a potentially big mismatch with Von Miller’s speed.

Overall, issues with the tackles have not stopped KC from being a top offense, but if Miller can disrupt two or three key plays by using his quickness to get around Brown and force Mahomes up into Oliver/Settle/Edmunds/Milano in the middle, that could be the difference in a game between two teams that are so evenly matched.

For a full breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

Last updated: 10/1/22 6:30 am.

Devin Singletary Receptions

o u
CSR 2.5 -169 +123
DK 2.5 -170 +125
FD 2.5 -160 +124
MGM 2.5 -165 +125

As our own Ant Prohaska has pointed out:

The Chiefs are interested in limiting explosive plays. They are playing with more shells and trying to contain Boom worthy plays. The trade-off is softer coverage underneath that shell. Josh Allen has already demonstrated this year that he is willing to wait for the deep shots and throw with a lower average depth of target. Singletary’s reception totals have benefitted, and so have we. This is the third time this season that Motor’s receptions total is a recommendation on the over.

Chiefs’ D versus RBs in 11 personnel, which the Bills are in 74% of the time (all stats SIS):

  • Given up the most receptions (34) and yards (228)
  • Surrendered the 5th highest completion percentage (89.5%)
  • Yielded the 8th most EPA/play (0.12)
  • Tied for 10th most yards/attempt allowed (6.0)
  • Allowed the 11th-highest QB Rating (100.4)

Recommendation: o2.5, 0.5u at FD. It’s a broken record by this point, but Motor means money this season when it comes to his receiving totals. The books are catching up a little: the vig is getting heavy. Rather see 3.5 at +100 to -115 instead of 2.5 this heavy, but it’s still free money.

Josh Allen Passing TDs

o u
CSR 2.5 +129 -179
DK 2.5 +125 -180
FD 2.5 +136 -174
MGM 2.5 +145 -190

The Bills have three rushing TDs on the season, and Allen has two of them. This isn’t to belittle the Bills’ rushing attack but to note that the Bills score through the air, and this game should be a classic back-and-forth with high scoring.

To bolster the point for this game, some more stats on KC vs 11 personnel:

  • Tied for 2nd most passing TDs allowed
  • 2nd most completions allowed

Only 9th in yards, which suggests their umbrella has been relatively effective, which is supported by KC being tenth best in yards per attempt at 6.5 and a Boom rate of only 19.1% (12 best). In other words, KC has generally let teams dink and dunk, limiting explosive plays, but also ultimately allowing their opponents to score TDs. It’s a slow paper-cut death, but still a death.

Recommendation: o2.5 at MGM, 0.5u. Really tempted to say a full unit, but let’s just enjoy the plus money.

Bills’ Team Total Points – Second Half

o u
CSR
DK 13.5 -140 +120
FD 13.5 -128 +106
MGM

I jumped on the over at DK when it was 14.5 +120 without seeing the other two books, but they changed it twice over, moved the line to 13.5 and dropped the juice to -140. The 13.5 is obviously better, but it’s too bad about the plus money. There should be alternate team totals listed during halftime, and I’d go over anything un to 16.5 depending on how the game has gone.

The game script expects a lot of points, and that plus money discrepancy at DK is too tempting. The Bills have a +91 point differential on the season. Here’s the point differential by quarter for the season

Q1 +3
Q2 +25
Q3 +44
Q4 +19

The Bills are +63 in the second half alone. That is better than every other team’s full-game point differential. This just in: you don’t get big point differences without scoring, ya know, points. I know it’s hard, but do try to keep up.

The KC secondary is banged up, and Mahomes is still Mahomes: there should be a lot of points in each half by both teams.

Recommendation: o13.5, 0.5u at FD. 

Conclusion

Don’t worry about revenge this game. While giving the winner a leg up in the race for home-field advantage, this isn’t the one that matters most. This should be one of the best regular season games in the NFL this year, and our favorite team is in it. Enjoy it. But it is still just the regular season. A Bills’ win will be nice, but it isn’t the one I want most. I want the playoff victory. Until then, we’ll just have to settle with winning that free money.

Tail or fade, let me see those winnings on Twitter @LowBuffa. Good luck everybody!

Record to date: 11-4, +2.5u

A sneaky long shot just for you because you made it all the way to the bottom: Reggie Gilliam to score and the Bills to win is +2000 on FD. The same logic for Singletary’s receptions – KC allowing underneath passing to RBs – applies to Gilliam too. Nothing more than 0.25u if you’re feeling lucky.

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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