5 unbelievable stats through 6 games of Bills’ 2022 season

10/18/2022
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The Buffalo Bills are the current kings of the AFC after their 24-20 road win at Arrowhead on Sunday evening. The win moves Buffalo to 5-1 as it enters its bye week. Before we move on to that mental break, let’s take a minute to look at some fun numbers from the squad. Here are my five “would you believe me if I said…” stats from your AFC-leading Buffalo Bills.

3 biggest takeaways from Bills’ 24-20 thriller vs. Chiefs

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills are perfect when Josh Allen scrambles on 3rd and 4th?

According to NFL’s GSIS Statistics, Josh Allen and his Bills teammates have converted one hundred percent of his scrambles on third and fourth downs into first downs. The analytics site says that Buffalo is a perfect seven for seven on such occasions. Here are the distances they have picked up on third-down: 4 (twice), 5, 7, 9. Here are the distances they have picked up on fourth-down 1 (twice), 2 (1). What may be even more remarkable about that is they aren’t just sneaking (get it?) out the first down, they are picking up even more. The third-down plays have gone for an average of 10.2 yards, and the three fourth-down plays have averaged 3.3 yards a clip.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills are the darlings of the analytics community?

After its win against the Chiefs, Buffalo climbed atop both the offensive and defensive DVOA from our friends at Football Outsiders. Right; not the Bills’ overall DVOA (explained as a ” system [that] breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on a situation in order to determine value over average”), which is 43.4%, a large gap ahead of the unbeaten Eagles at 29.3%. Buffalo is the first team to lead both defensive and offensive DVOA after Week 6 since the 2003 Bucs. According to Adam Schatz on Twitter, the 2001 Rams and 1987 49ers are the only teams to ever finish #1 in both categories for an entire season.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills can win a one-score game?

Remember that fun narrative where the collective media forgot to include any context and decided seven games was a proper sample size and the rest of Sean McDermott’s time with Josh Allen didn’t exist? Fun times! Anyways, two of the last three Bills games were won 23-20 over the Baltimore Ravens and 24-20 over the Kansas City Chiefs. The most advanced analytics prove that those wins were by one score. I don’t feel we need to talk about this much longer… or ever again!

Von Miller didn’t blink, delivers huge performance in Bills’ 24-20 win vs. Chiefs

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills finally unleashed Von Miller?

I know what you’re thinking, “but Greg, Von has been playing great?!” You’re not wrong! He had four sacks with eight tackles and was constantly in the opponent’s backfield through the first five games of the year. That said, he was doing it on less than 60% of snaps through those first five weeks. This trip to Kansas City saw Miller get a season-high 78% of snaps, or 52 of the defensive snaps. They came in handy as well with Miller bringing Mahomes down twice for sacks as well as being a major pain deep in the second half.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… Josh Allen is not only the MVP, but is on pace to smash history?

Ok, that might be a bit hyperbolic, but here are some of Josh Allen’s ‘on pace’ stats so far. The signal-caller is trending towards 5,610 passing yards with 48 touchdowns. As for using his legs, Allen is pacing for 728 rushing yards and six rushing TDs. For historical context, Allen’s 5,610 would best Peyton Manning’s all-time record mark by almost 150 yards. Now, Manning did do it in 16 games. The 48 touchdowns would be tied for fifth all-time. The rushing stats would both fall within the top 20 all-time for a QB.

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