Dolphins vs. Bills: 5 keys to victory in NFL Week 15

12/16/2022
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The Buffalo Bills enter Week 15 with a clear view of what they can achieve during the 2022 regular season as they sit atop not only the AFC East but the AFC as a whole. Buffalo can put the division to bed Saturday night when it hosts the Miami Dolphins, who come in two games behind the Bills with four games to play. Here are the top five things I believe Buffalo needs to do to extend its winning streak to five games and keep ahold of the top of the conference.

Allen Town

The Bills’ signal-caller has owned Miami in his nine starts against the Dolphins. Entering Saturday, Allen is 7-2 with over 310 total yards per game and a touchdown to interception ratio of 4.6/1 while accounting for three touchdowns per game. In fact, before the heat stroke game in Miami in Week 3 of this season, the Bills had a seven-game winning streak against Miami with Allen under center. Our friends at BetUS.com see this as another pretty easy win for the Bills, with Buffalo currently sitting as a seven-point favorite.

Thank You, San Fran

The 49ers exposed Miami’s passing game two weeks ago when they took away the center of the field and jammed Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at the line of scrimmage. The Chargers copied this style last week, and we should expect Leslie Frazier and company to steal some of those concepts. How well did they work in those two weeks? Miami is averaging just 17 points per game in a pair of losses. They also had their worst passing game of the year last week, putting up just 127 yards through the air. 

Weather or Not

Mother Nature has a sense of humor… as long as you think dark, cold, snowy, and ice is funny. We all remember back in Week 3 when the Bills’ sideline was a virtual air fryer. This week, the Dolphins get to come north and deal with Orchard Park temps that are expected to be in the high 20s at best. Entering Week 15, the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is 0-3 in games where the temp is 45 degrees or colder. The Miami offense has scored 10, 16, and 18 points in those games. We learned after Week 3 that weather IS NOT allowed to be an excuse, so no heaters and chicken broth on the sidelines, right Miami?

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Take Advantage of Turnovers

The Dolphins have five turnovers in their three games since the bye including a pair of picks from Tua Tagovailoa. This has been a bit of a trend for them all season, ranking 24th in the league in turnover margin at -3. They aren’t taking the ball away much either with just .9 takeaways per game. Meanwhile, the Bills rank fourth in the league in takeaways at 1.7 per game. Combine those two trends and there should be plenty of opportunities for Buffalo to steal a possession or two in this one.

All Gas, No Brakes

I use this category every week, and it is usually reserved for some fun stats about how the offense is playing late in games and where the Bills can take advantage, but this week it’s a defensive theme. The Bills got after the Jets and Mike White to the tune of four sacks and a handful of plays where I’m still not sure how White got off the turf. Being aggressive with Tua, Waddle, and Hill throughout the game is going to be huge as I laid out before. If the Bills can get an early lead and make Miami even more predictable while giving Greg Rousseau and company the chance to pin their ears back, they should have a clear path to 11-3 on the season.

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