Bills vs. Dolphins: 3 best prop bets for NFL Week 18

01/07/2024
DB+

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, Bills Mafia of all ages, you have made it to Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season, and your Buffalo Bills have brought you a dramatic scenario against the rival Miami Dolphins. Even if the Jacksonville Jaguars or Pittsburgh Steelers have lost by the time the last game of the regular season rolls around, Bills vs. Dolphins will have all the tension of two teams fighting for the division crown and significantly better playoff seeding. Buckle up.

There was no tension last week for Three Props, as we took a week off. Two 0-3 weeks can lead to chasing, and, if you don’t just skip over the rules, you know we don’t chase. We do, however, get back in the saddle. Let’s close out this regular season on a high note with a big Bills win and more free money.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

For a thorough breakdown, read Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Be sure to check the inactives list prior to the game.

Bills vs. Dolphins: Scouting How Buffalo Can Steal the AFC East

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind around 11 mph.

Recommendations

James Cook Receiving Yards

Book Line O  U
DK 21.5 -110 -120
FD 20.5 -114 -114
MGM 21.5 -110 -120

The numbers posted here are for the season, and their performance against running back pass-catching has gotten worse:

From SIS

Cook only has six targets over the last three weeks, but if Joe Brady is trying to attack his opponents’ weaknesses, then Cook should garner plenty of attention from Josh Allen.

Recommendation: James Cook o20.5 receiving yards at FD, -114, 0.5u

Khalil Shakir Receptions

Book Line O  U
DK 2.5 +120 -150
FD 2.5 +124 -166
MGM 2.5 +135 -175

Shakir has passed this line in seven of the last ten weeks, including the last two. With Xavien Howard out and Jalen Ramsey likely focused on Stefon Diggs, Sunday night could be big for the Bills’ secondary pass catchers.

Miami has been bad against slot receivers for the last month:

  • 27th in total yards allowed (531)
  • Tied for 30th in TDs allowed (5)
  • 30th in Yards/Att (9.7)
  • 27th in Rating Against (112)
  • 27th in Boom Rate allowed (32.7%)
  • 28h in EPA/Play (0.38)

Recommendation: Khalil Shakir o2.5 receptions, +136 at MGM, 0.5u. If you want a long shot, a Shakir ATD is around +400 and a first TD is +2000 (no more than 0.25u and 0.1u respectively)

Bills 1st Half Total Points

Book Line O  U
DK 12.5 -130 +110
FD 13.5 -105 -115
MGM 13.5 -115 -110

The Bills have averaged 14.1 pts in the first half of games in 2023, and that number is at 18.1 over their last three. Given Miami’s injuries on defense and its recent struggles against the pass, the Bills should be able to hit this over. The injury to Bradley Chubb is especially significant. He led the Dolphins in total pressures, sacks, and hurries. Chubb was playing on 81% of Miami’s defensive snaps, and the Dolphins are much worse against the pass without him on the field. Add to it that this injury just happened and Miami will be in a period of experimentation with how to replace Chubb – unlike the Bills being experienced in replacing Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano – and there is a path to early points for Buffalo.

The 12.5 available at DK is the deciding factor. That means the Bills could over with a TD and two FGs instead of just two TDs. Having that additional avenue requires another scoring possession, but it’s a huge benefit not to require multiple TDs.

Recommendation: Bill 1st half team total points o12.5 -130 at DK, 0.5u.

Conclusion

It’s been a profitable regular season overall, and hopefully, we’ve all learned more about football while tucking a little extra cash away. Three Props will keep up with the playoffs even if the Bills don’t make it, but maybe this year we bet the Bills all the way through the Super Bowl!

Record: 26-22, 54.2%, +14.5u

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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