Bills Need Improvement on Short Yardage situations

One of the biggest areas that the Bills need to improve on is when the offense is faced with 3rd-and-short. While each coach generally classifies this situation differently, for the sake of continuity, I went with the Football Outsiders (FO) classification of the situation as being any 3rd down with 1-2 yards to go. In 2019, the Bills were ranked 24th in FO’s DVOA metric on 3rd-and-short, and it was a mixed bag on why they were so putrid in that critical situation. First was the fact that they were very predictable. I chose to add 4th-and-short into this analysis, and with that added, of their 51 3rd/4th-and-short situations, they ran the ball 43 times. Running it in this situation 84% of the time keyed the defense into the play-call, which is why the Bills only averaged 1.7 yards per carry and a 65% successful run rate, which is below the league average of 68%. It’s a small sample, but when the Bills chose to pass it in short yardage situations, they averaged 8.4 YPA and an 88% success rate. The workhorses in these short-yardage running situations were quarterback Josh Allen and running back Frank Gore. Allen carried the rock … Continue reading Bills Need Improvement on Short Yardage situations