Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, Bills Mafia, and an old friend is visiting Orchard Park. Brian Daboll comes home to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football, but the team he brings with him is struggling. The former Bills’ offensive coordinator has not had the season he’d hoped for so far in year two of his Giants tenure. The Giants have been creating very little pass rush on defense and allowing a historical rate of pressure and sacks on offense.
While not quite a historical rate, Week 5 brought us our first perfect week for the 2023 season,
- Stefon Diggs o82.5 receiving yards, -115, 0.75 units, Result: 121 receiving yards ✅
- Ed Oliver sacks o0.25, +120, 0.5u, Result: 1 sack ✅
- Travis Etienne longest rush o15.5, -110, 0.5u: Result: Longest rush 35 yards✅
We don’t promise perfect weeks around here. They just come on their own.
First Things First
Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Don’t chase a bet.
- Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
- Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
- See Rule #1.
If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.
National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700
Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.
This game script can’t be written without looking at the Giants’ offensive injuries. You’ll see the full injury report below like usual, but look at their offense as of Friday morning;
That’s eight of 11 starters with questionable designations. Some will still play, but the injury bug this team has is a camel spider (unless you like nightmares, don’t look that up).
All of these injuries are on top of an offensive line that has been less than good. They have allowed 30 sacks through five games. Read that again. Their adjusted sack rate is atrocious. If they stay at this rate for the full season, it will be the worst rate in the last four years (maybe more but the new DVOA site doesn’t go back further yet).
- 2020: HOU, 9.5%
- 2021: CHI, 9.5%
- 2022: CHI, 13%
- 2023 through Week 5: NYG, 14.8%
It is hard to function offensively with that many sacks. This offseason, Rich Hribar of Sharp Football examined why scoring dropped off in the 2022 NFL season. The negative impact of sacks, not just last year but across the last five seasons, was eye-opening:
Drives without a sack end in a score close to 40% of the time. Drives with a sack are just over half as likely to result in a FG or TD. A sack essentially cuts your scoring chances in half every drive. Here are the Giants’ sacks allowed by week:
- DAL: 7
- ARI: 3
- SF: 2
- SEA: 11
- MIA: 7
Three sacks to the Cardinals?! The Cardinals’ defensive line is in the discussion for the worst personnel group in the league. Those three sacks were split between four players: Kyzir White, James Quetzele, Zaven Collins, and David Samuelson. To prove the point, two of those names were made up.
Even without DaQuan Jones, Gregory Rousseau, and Matt Milano, the Bills’ defensive line should create pressure against a poor and depleted line for the Giants. If Jones’ neck injury keeps him out, and the Giants start backup QB Tyrod Taylor in a homecoming of his own, Taylor’s mobility isn’t that much better than the younger Jones, who does have running as one of his strengths.
Oh, and the Giants can’t create any pressure on defense.
Prediction: Giants 9 – Bills 31
For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.
The 31st-ranked DVOA is Carolina’s -34.5%. Whoa.
Giants injury report has 4 starters out. QB Jones, DE Ojulari, LT Thomas & C Schmitz. Swing OT Peart also out.
RT Neal, TE Waller, RB Barkley are 3 starters who are questionable. #Bills #NYGvsBUF pic.twitter.com/z5waGu6pm7
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrownBills) October 13, 2023
Friday injury report pic.twitter.com/QKjuyl7x9C
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) October 13, 2023
From the National Weather Service: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low of around 45. North wind 7 to 9 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tyler Bass Field Goals
This is mostly about the second-half drives with a substantial lead and the Bills not needing to punch in touchdowns.
Recommendation: Tyler Bass o1.5 FG, 0.5u
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Wink Martindale-coached defenses have been among the most blitz-heavy teams since he became a defensive coordinator, and it generally doesn’t matter who he is facing or how well that QB performs against the blitz. Enter Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs. When blitzed, Allen:
- Ranks first in completion percentage
- Ranks third in EPA, Passer Rating, Points Earned/Play, and On-Target Percentage
- Ranks fourth in Yards/Attempt and Positive Play Percentage
- Ranks fifth in TD percentage
In other words, Allen has become a passer teams should not blitz. Martindale can’t stop himself though, and he has blitzed 42% of the time. So when the blitz comes, Allen targets Diggs. In 2023, when blitzed, Allen has targeted Diggs 16 times. Gabe Davis is in second place with seven targets. Lest you think this an aberration, in 2022, Diggs led the team in blitz targets with 44, and Davis was in second place again with 25.
Recommendation: Stefon Diggs o83.5 receiving yards, 0.5u
Damien Harris Anytime TD
TD recommendations are few and far between around here. There’s too much volatility in it, and often the odds aren’t very good. This is a garbage time prediction. A fair amount of the second half could be the Bills grinding down the clock. In the second half when the Bills are up by seven or more, James Cook has 25 carries, and Harris has the next most at 12. In the Bass recommendation, it was mentioned the Bills will have drives where they don’t NEED to punch it. Sure, but they will also have enough drives where they still will pound it in.
Recommendation: Damien Harris Anytime TD, +285 0.5u. If you think Latavius Murray is the better candidate, you could do 0.25u on his +380 Anytime TD
Watch for the blowout. A team this depleted only stands a chance if the Bills completely fall apart (which, yes, is possible, but not this badly – look at that injury report again).
I really wanted to recommend Josh Allen u296.5 total yards because he might sit for a big chunk of the second half, but I can’t bring myself to do it because he might hit the over in the first half alone.
Record: 10-5, +8.16 u