Jets vs. Bills: 3 best prop bets for NFL Week 11

11/19/2023
DB+

The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills will fight it out for the second and final time in the 2023 NFL season this week. The first time was Week 1, and it was Josh Allen’s worst game of the season. The season has been even more of a roller coaster since then, which led to Ken Dorsey getting fired as Offensive Coordinator even though a lot of the metrics say the Bills’ offense is doing great. Watching them though, we could all tell most possessions looked like a struggle, and those of you who have listened to Erik Turner and Ant Prohaska on The Film Room could see the issues in some of the details of play design. I still think Dorsey has a bright future as a coach, but the biggest concern when he was hired was his lack of experience, and that proved out. Best of luck Ken, now we focus on salvaging the season.

We’re still up 10+ units overall, but the last couple of weeks make me feel like we need to resuscitate our props season. The 2-4 record over the last two weeks has sent me back to the drawing board. Last week’s results versus the Denver Broncos:

  • Samaje Perine o12.5 receiving yards, -114, 0.5u, Result: 35 receiving yards✅
  • Jaleel McLaughlin o18.5 rush yards, -120, 0.5u, Result: eight rushing yards❌
  • Khalil Shakir receptions o3.5, +130, 0.5, Result: one reception❌

This was the last time we’ll use DVOA receiver data to support a prop for a good while. The Broncos should have been as weak an opponent as could be faced for a WR3, and that fell completely flat even after Shakir had been rising the last few weeks. The WR portion of DVOA had also suggested the Davis longest reception prop the week before. This isn’t to say DVOA has no value or we’re all of a sudden anti-analytics over here, but sometimes the correlation between a particular statistic and the prop we pursue based on that data isn’t as strong as we’d like. It’s a good lesson though. As the conversation around Dorsey proved, we need both the stats and the film. We also need that free money. Let’s go.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

When the Jets have the ball, they should struggle to move it because – news flash – Zach Wilson is not good, and the left side of their offensive line has allowed pressure consistently. Left Tackle Mekhi Becton and Left Guard Laken Tomlinson have each allowed 31 pressures, which is tied for fifth most among all types of offensive linemen with 20% of snaps. Plus, the Jets’ new RG, Xavier Newman, has allowed 11 pressures in the last two weeks.

Overall, the Jets are a mess on offense. They have exceptional skill players in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and a solid collection of secondary skill players, but Wilson is the inhibiting factor. To start, when that porous line permits pressure, Wilson allows a surprising amount of sacks for a player who has demonstrated some mobility. At 21.4%, Wilson’s pressure-to-sack rate is the eighth highest among quarterbacks who have had at least 50% of snaps. His passer rating is dead last within that same group (out of 27). His adjusted completion percentage is above only Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford, and Josh Dobbs. Only Pickett and Gardner Minshew have generated fewer first downs. his efficiency numbers are even worse.

When the Bills have the ball, well, we are in uncharted territory. With Joe Brady as the new Offensive Coordinator, there are some clues from his time as a previous OC in Carolina, but it’s hard to say what Brady will want to try in a new situation and with an actual offense. It’s doubtful the Bills will entirely change direction on offense in one short week in the middle of the season, but some tendencies might shift.

Simply put, the Jets’ defense remains outstanding. A few statistics from the last month of games:

  • First in passer rating against
  • Lowest Yards/Pass Attempt allowed
  • Best EPA/Play for pass defense
  • Second best pass defense EPA allowed

While they are middle of the pack against the rush, they show no major holes on that side of the ball. Brady will have his work cut out for him in his first week as Bills’ OC.

The Jets are just so bad offensively that it’s hard to see how they score enough to keep up with the Bills’ offense, even one with a new OC facing a challenging defense because the Bills have the greatest advantage in football, a wide disparity in QB play.

Prediction: Bills 24 – Jets 20

For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Be sure to check the inactives about an hour before game time.

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Sunday
A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. West wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Recommendations

Breece Hall Receiving Yards

Book Line o u
DK 23.5 -120 -110
FD 27.5 -114 -114
MGM 23.5 -130 -110

Since Week 6, the Bills have given up the sixth worst completion percentage to RBs & the eighth-highest Yards/Att. Over that time, Hall is the second most targeted Jet & is averaging 9.2 Yards/Reception vs light boxes, which the Bills have used at a 54% rate.

Recommendation: Breece Hall o23.5 receiving yards, -120, 0.5u. If you want to fade due to the last couple weeks, this is great opportunity because of how much higher that FD line is. I would also consider Hall’s longest rush over 14.5 at -120 – this Bills’ D is a shell of the one he had a 83 yard scamper against.

James Cook Receiving Yards

Book Line o u
DK 15.5 -115 -115
FD 14.5 -114 -114
MGM 15.5 -115 -115

Erik’s work on why Brady could mean increased usage for Cook in the passing game is good enough reason.

Cook had four catches on six targets for 17 yards in the first meeting.

Recommendation: James Cook o14.5 receiving yards at FD, -114, 0.5

Khalil Shakir Longest Reception

Book Line o u
DK 15.5 -125 -105
FD 14.5 -114 -114
MGM 15.5 -125 -105

While receptions didn’t work out last week, Shakir’s longest reception would have, and there is still value in his props as the market catches up to his usage patterns. In the last five weeks as his snap share has significantly grown, Shakir’s longest receptions are 13, 13, 30, 23, 24. The Jets’ No. 3 cornerback is Michael Carter, and he has been good, but he is not Sauce Gardner or DJ Reed. Shakir only got 13 snaps in Week 1. His shiftiness and connections with Allen could add a key element against a very good Jets’ defense.

Recommendation: Khalil Shakir longest reception o14.5 at FD, -114, 0.5u.

Conclusion

The last couple of weeks have been rough. Not as rough as they have been on the Bills, but we haven’t had free money to take the sharp edge off of that sting.  I spent extra time researching this week (I didn’t write my usual One Play piece to free up some space), so hopefully we’ll get back to our winning ways – 3 Props and the Bills both!

Record: 17-13, 56.7%, +10.67u

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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