Ladies and gentlemen, we are in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season, and it’s safe to say this season has not gone exactly like you had hoped. Losing to the New England Patriots never feels good, but put that loss on the heels of barely beating the lackluster New York Giants and the devastating loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and you’ve got a full-blown catastrophe raging in Bills Mafia. Thankfully, we only have a short week leading up to a showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

There was no catastrophe here in Three Props last week. Another winning week hopefully assuaged some of the nausea of a happy Bill Belichick on the sidelines after the clock hit 0:00.

• Gabe Davis o33.5 receiving yards, Result:six receiving yards❌
• Stevenson longest rush o13.5, Result: longest rush 14 yards✅
• Kincaid receiving yards o20.5, Result: 75 receiving yards✅

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
2. Don’t chase a bet.
3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

Man, how the hell should I know?! Have you watched the last three weeks? This Bills team could beat the team of the century AND lose to one of the worst teams in the league. They are wild.

I can tell you how Josh Allen and the Bills handle the blitz will be a big factor in the outcome. The Bucs blitz 40% of the time, third most in the league this year, and how Allen and the Bills have performed against the blitz has taken a nasty turn.

The why is unclear. Have defenses figured out ways they can exploit the Bills’ protection shifts? Is Allen’s shoulder injury hampering him in some related way? Is Allen just going through a rough stretch in reading defensive schemes or hitting the right alert? All those questions go to the why, but the reality is undeniable.

If you’re thinking this is the week Allen begins to run again, you might be right, but I would not recommend risking your money on the results. TB hasn’t faced many running QBs this year, but they held Justin Fields to three rush yards and Jalen Hurts to 28, which was the lowest rush yards total for the year until Philly beat up Miami, and Hurts did not need to run as much. The Bucs surrender the fifth lowest yards/att to rushing QBs (minus kneels and sneaks). They give up the fewest yards/game to QBs at only 10.2. Allen could overcome those numbers, but it would be a serious digression from both his running stats for the year and the Bucs’ defensive prowess at taking it away.

When the Creamsicles have the ball and they use motion, they pass 70% of the time, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Since Week 5, against motion, the Bills have allowed

• the fifth-highest completion percentage (75%)
• the ninth-highest yards/attempt (8.3)
• a QB rating of 122 (third highest)
• a Boom rate of 26.8% (ninth highest)

There is enough room for error from the Bills’ defense and demonstrated inconsistency from the offense that this game could be in doubt until the very end.

Prediction: Prediction is a stupid word. After the last three weeks, this is a blind guess. Buccaneers 24 – Bills 27

For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Wednesday injury report pic.twitter.com/Q68sFzKaCy

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) October 25, 2023

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Recommendations

Tyler Bass Field Goals

Bass has not been his automatic self the last couple of weeks, but he’s been too consistent for too long to throw that out now. Plus, there could very well be some Bills’ drives that stall out in the red zone. Tampa’s defense is outstanding in the RZ.

From Sumer Sports

Tampa is tied for the fewest RZ TD passes in the league and tied for third-fewest rushing RZ TDs in the league. Maybe the Bills will do all of their scoring from outside the RZ, but it’s entirely plausible that an inconsistent offense facing a good RZ defense will turn to their usually reliable kicker for 2+ FGs.

Recommendation: Bass o1.5 FG, -105, 0.5u

Josh Allen Interceptions

Joe Marino of Locked on Bills tweeted about how well Tampa has done in creating turnovers this year:  “Bucs force a turnover on 21% of drives which is the best in the league. 13 takeaways in 6 games. At least 2 takeaways in 5 of 6 games.”

Some interesting Bucs metrics so far in 2023:

– TB is 4th highest in play action frequency % but Mayfield is dead last in the NFL in Passer Rating w/play action at 70.1
– Mayfield is No. 2 in the NFL in pressure % that results in sacks. Mahomes is 1st at 7.2, Mayfield 2nd at…

— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) October 25, 2023

Allen is tied for the second most INTs with seven and has had one in each of the last three weeks. The rallying cry for Bills Mafia this week has been to bring back Chaos Josh. If that ends up being the case, an interception is a good bet.

Recommendation: Allen interceptions o0.5, +100, 0.5u

Stefon Diggs Receptions

The Buccaneers are essentially the inverse of the Patriots when it comes to DVOA versus pass catchers. Where the Pats have locked down number one wideouts and struggled with other receivers, the Bucs have pretty well shut down most pass-catching weapons other than WR1s. They rank 22nd in DVOA  to WR1s with 89.3 yards/gm on 9.3 passes/gm (it’s uncertain if passes mean targets or catches). Either way, the Bills will need to keep scoring every game moving forward if and until the defense can right the ship after all the injuries. If the Bills need to keep scoring, Diggs will keep getting targets.

Recommendation: Diggs’ receptions o6.5, -140, 0.5u.

Conclusion

Baker Mayfield’s questionable status as of Wednesday night has me scared away from Tampa Bay receiving lines, but if Mayfield is good to go, I like Mike Evans over 56.5 receiving yards as a bonus bet.

We would all love to see a blowout to set our minds at ease for a week, but I think the cumulative defensive injuries may have put blowouts away for the rest of the year. So, please offense, can we go back to firing on all cylinders?

Record: 13-8, +9.43u