The Buffalo Bills have fallen back to .500 on the year and are currently in tenth in the AFC. There are a lot of advanced metrics that still like Buffalo, but none of that matters if you aren’t winning games (we’ll get to all that in a minute). With the recent struggles on offense, a change was needed, and that change was firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and promoting Joe Brady (we’ll get to that as well). Despite all the off-the-field drama for the Bills, they still enter Sunday’s game against the Jets as seven-point favorites. New York enters this game a half-game behind the Bills with a 4-5 record and losers of back-to-back games, including falling to Las Vegas, a team Buffalo destroyed. Without further ado, here are my top five storylines to watch as the Bills host New York in a random 4:25 kickoff in Orchard Park on Sunday.
As I alluded to earlier, there is a new play-caller in Buffalo as the Bills have promoted QB coach Joe Brady to offensive coordinator. A quick look at Brady’s resume: he was the Bills QB coach in 2022 and 2023, before that he was the Panthers OC in 2020 and part of 2021. Brady made his name as the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach of LSU’s 2019 National Championship team. That team featured Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
This one is pretty self-explanatory. The Bills entered the season with all the hype in the world. Depending on where you looked, they were a top-three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Those rumblings got louder when Aaron Rodgers got hurt early in the Week 1 matchup. From there, Buffalo managed to lose to a Zach Wilson-led team 22-16 in overtime. The Bills need a win, badly, and doing it against a division rival who already beat you would be a little cherry on top.
The Bills and Jets defenses are two of the best in the league and will most likely decide this game. Coming into Sunday, Buffalo is ranked fifth in opponents’ points per game at 18.4, and the Jets are seventh at 19.1. From there, you can look at turnovers, yards, sacks, etc., and both units are in the top half of the league or better, sometimes significantly better.
If you’ve been against the Bills the last six games, you have done well. Buffalo is currently in a slump of six straight games where they didn’t cover the spread. They are 3-7 overall against the spread. Looking at the last couple of weeks, the Bills were 1.5-point favorites at Cincinnati, 7.5-point favorites against Denver, and are currently a seven-point favorite on Sunday.
“Playoffs?” – Jim Mora
I hate the term “must-win” when the game isn’t, in fact, a must-win game. That said, the loser of this game will be below .500 entering Week 12. If it’s the Bills, they will fall to 5-6, with their next three games being at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, and at home against Dallas. May I suggest winning this game, Buffalo?