The Buffalo Bills’ Week 9 game versus the Cincinnati Bengals did not go as planned for Bills’ fans. In evaluating that game, we have been talking about how the Bills can rank highly in several trustworthy metrics, but lose and not really pass the “eye test.” One factor we’ve landed on is that analytics like EPA and DVOA “reward” drives even if they don’t score points. A 75-yard drive that ends in a goalline stand by the opposing defense does nothing for the scoreboard but looks like a positive series in some of the analytical models. Take a look at a drive chart from RBSDM.com (analyst Ben Baldwin’s website). The Bills’ second drive starts at the -40, marches to the goalline and…nothing. Zero points. Nothing added to win probability (those squiggles to the right indicate WP). The plays that moved the team toward the goalline earned EPA and impacted DVOA. Those metrics and WP are measuring different things. The moral of the story is what Cover 1 has always taught: understanding the game is best done in a combination of film study and analytics. Studying the tape versus the Bengals was not particularly fun. I didn’t go as deeply as…
One Play: Decent designs result in little production for Bills’ offense vs. Bengals
11/09/2023
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You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!
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