It’s the Super Bowl! The culmination of months of planning, grinding, sweating, toiling, and giving it 100% – and that’s just us bettors, but I guess the teams have worked hard too. The last week of the NFL season presents so many more opportunities to profit. You could bet anything from a line on the Kelce brothers to whether or not the first coach’s challenge will be successful. This week, we’re going to give you three typical props, which let us dive into the game, and, as a Super Bowl special because you’ve been really good this year, three additional higher odds props to try and end the season on a high note.
The last time we bet was another playoff low note for your faithful bettor. Going 1-2 but being so close to a full sweep was agonizing. To recap, we hit on Semaje Perine’s catches over, but AJ Brown had 4 catches in the first half and none in the second because the Eagles had no need to throw with the 49ers not having a functioning QB, and then there was the kicker. The Chiefs actually scored with :41 left in Q1 to get us over 9.5 Q1 points, but it was eliminated because of a holding penalty. Ugh.
Bad beats won’t keep us down though. This is our last swing at the 2022 NFL season, and we’re going out strong. Let’s get that analysis money.
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First Things First
Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Don’t chase a bet.
- Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
- Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
- See Rule #1.
If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.
National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700
Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.
There have been more than a million words written about this game across the internet, so we won’t get too deep into the script. We do want to acknowledge though that Vegas expects a close game. The spread has been tight but swung toward each team at different points. The total initially fluctuated between 49.5 and 50.5 for a while but has been climbing as more public money comes in and now sits at 51 at DK. There has only been one other time the spread was under 2 since 1982, and oddly enough that was KC vs TB in 2020 (Bet Firm).
Watch for a close game where neither team gets more than 1 score ahead, and we get to watch amazing plays from all four main units.
Philly is the better team overall but the Chiefs have a Mahomes. This should be great.
Here’s the final injury report for the Chiefs and Eagles. No injury designations for the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/jiFvuoYfCe
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) February 10, 2023
Last Updated: 6:00 am 2/11/23
Miles Sanders Rushing Yards
Since Week 12, Philly has used shotgun the most in the league at 92% of plays. What they do out of the gun is flipped from traditional thinking though: The Eagles pass from the gun at the league’s 30th rate (58%), and they run out of it at the 3rd highest rate. the Chiefs’ run D is mediocre to bad against runs from the gun. Since Wk 12, KC’s run defense has allowed
- 10th most yards to shotgun runs (only 1 team above has played fewer games than KC’s 7, so it isn’t just the extra games filling the boxscore)
- tied for 4th most TDs (4)
- 9th most broken tackles
- 14th in Yds/Att
- 7th highest Boom Rate (plays that create 1.0+ EPA for the offense) at 14.3%
The Eagles have run for close to 1,000 yards (942) from the gun just since Week 12. They have 11 TDs out of that formation over the same time span, and the next closest team has 6. Philly’s “shotruns” also garnered the 7th best EPA/Att with 0.11 and the 5th highest Boom Rate.
If you’re still figuring out what EPA is and how it works, I wrote up a brief explanation as part of this article: Bills’ Top 5 Offensive Plays By EPA for 2022.
When the Eagles run from the gun, far away they do it with Sanders. Since Week 12, Sanders has 96 such attempts and the next closest is Jalen Hurts with 36. Sanders is averaging 63.7 Y/G on just shotruns, and that yardage ranks third in NFL behind only JK Dobbins and Justin Fields.
Recommendation: The line has moved higher (we could’ve gotten at 55.5 earlier), but I think this game stays tight and Philly will want to control the ball as much as possible. o60.5, -115, 0.5u
Devonta Smith Receiving Yards
The Chiefs’ secondary is probably the weakest unit on the team, with only competition from their WR group for the dubious honor. Smith lines up relatively equally on either side of the formation for Philly – 515 snaps as RWR, 420 LWR (PFF). KC is 26th in DVOA in all passes to the Right, and 14th in Deep Passes to the Right (Football Outsiders). KC is also susceptible to passes to the middle of the field, where they rank 29th in DVOA, 30th to the Short Middle.
Smith’s numbers are better to the left, but he is absolutely no slouch on the rest of the field.
AJ Brown might get early attention from Jalen Hurts, but Smith will be a weapon throughout, and his line is 10 yards lower.
Recommendation: o62.5 -115 at MGM, .5u.
Hassan Reddick Sack
Reddick has been on a world destruction tour for 2 months. In the last 8 weeks, he has 13 sacks (really), 48 pressures, and 29 hurries. A few notes on the Chiefs’ OL:
- KC RT Andrew Wylie is probably the Chiefs’ worst lineman. He’s still solid overall, but he’s their weakest link.
- KC LT Orlando Brown can struggle with speed rushers
- Mahomes’ injury has limited his mobility. He has had two weeks to heal more, but it is unlikely he’s at 100%
Recommendation: Yes at -150 on CSR. MGM also has Reddick for most sacks in the game at +450, which leads us to the next section.
Three More Specials
Remember these are high-risk/high-reward types. No recommendations over 0.25u. If even one of these hits, the whole week is a victory.
Noah Gray Anytime TD +800
The Chiefs use 13 (1 RB, 3 TE) personnel at the 3rd highest rate over the last 10 weeks. The Eagles have only faced 3 pass attempts against that formation over those weeks. Gray gets KC’s second most targets out of 13 (28-24 behind Kelce, of course). Watch for KC to present 13 in the red zone at least a couple of times to try to get Philly to change personnel and play a formation type they aren’t really familiar with in a high-pressure setting. Plus, Kelce can’t catch every TD, right?
Devonta Smith Most Receptions in Game +450
This is the extreme version of the reasoning behind his yards over.
Will There Be an Octopus +1400
For the uninitiated, an octopus is a player scoring a TD and 2-point conversion on the same drive. This is primarily a “Travis Kelce is an unstoppable freak” bet, but Nick Sirianni may have tricks up his sleeve that creates the unexpected, and we’re talking about deep cuts here anyhow.
Even though the playoffs have dampened the overall record a bit, this has still been a great season for our props. I hope you’ve all profited even more than I have. Writing this piece has been a lot of fun each week, and hopefully, you won enough to pay for next year’s Cover 1 1nsider subscription! This article will have some offseason content, but we won’t be weekly as there won’t be bets to make, but we’ll be back again next season.
Tail ’em or fade ’em, let me see those winning tickets on Twitter @LowBuffa.
Playoffs Record: 3-6