The annual overspending season is upon us. In a few short days we will have teams signing mega deals with big name free agents. Below is a ranking based on talent, with notes denoting one of two possible categories: VALUE, if I feel this player’s worth greatly exceeds his market value, or BUST, if I feel this player is overpriced relative to his true value. Finally, if a player has no label, then I believe he will earn a contract that is roughly equal his true worth.
Quarterbacks
Mike Glennon, Buccaneers: BUST
Partial game from 2016 vs. Atlanta:
Full game from 2014 vs. Minnesota:
Brian Hoyer, Bears: VALUE
Landry Jones, Steelers: VALUE
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: BUST
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets:
Nick Foles, Chiefs: BUST
EJ Manuel, Bills:
Matt Barkley, Bears:
Ryan Mallett, Ravens:
Geno Smith, Jets:
In my estimation, no free agent QB is worth investing in as a future starter. Avoid these quarterbacks at all costs. This includes Tyrod Taylor, if he becomes available. As a backup, Hoyer and Landry look to provide value.
(Note: Romo is likely to be released by the Cowboys and become the top free-agent option. The Bills have until March 11 to pick up the option on Tyrod Taylor’s contract. Declining to do so would make him a free agent)
Running backs
Eddie Lacy, Packers: VALUE
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: BUST
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs:
Rex Burkhead, Bengals: VALUE
Latavius Murray, Raiders: BUST
Christine Michael, Packers:
Darren McFadden, Cowboys:
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots:
Danny Woodhead, Chargers:
Rashad Jennings, Giants:
Someone is going to pay for the name of Adrian Peterson. Simply, he is not a fit for today’s NFL. He cannot run well out of the shotgun, which is the formation from which most teams play the majority of their snaps. Burkhead was underutilized in Cincinnati. Lacy could be a great find on a “prove it” deal.
Fullbacks
Kyle Juszczyk, Ravens:
Patrick DiMarco, Falcons:
Patrick DiMarco might be only FB in NFL who can block DE’s (not just LB’s). Check out FB on this play. pic.twitter.com/3Z2qr0YPZY
— Andy Benoit (@Andy_Benoit) March 3, 2017
Wide receivers
Alshon Jeffery, Bears:
Terrelle Pryor, Browns :VALUE
Heck of a throw by Mccown-Very good touch, trajectory and accuracy. Doesn’t lead Pryor into a big hit. pic.twitter.com/Ww9kh6aF2N
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) February 16, 2017
Desean Jackson, Redskins:
Robert Woods, Bills:
Kenny Britt, Rams: VALUE
Michael Floyd, Patriots: VALUE
Brandon Marshall, Jets:
Pierre Garcon, Redskins:
Kenny Stills, Dolphins: BUST
Stills TD, Darby unable to adjust to the ball pic.twitter.com/Qjx9yxZuSW
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) October 25, 2016
Torrey Smith, 49ers:
Tough to tell who blew the coverage..Darby makes the quick decision, I sense hesitation in Gilmore but no way to tell for sure. pic.twitter.com/mZSYKLWAIf
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) October 18, 2016
Josh Gordon, Browns: VALUE
Brian Quick, Rams: VALUE
Anquan Boldin, Lions:
Kamar Aiken, Ravens:
Marquess Wilson, Bears: VALUE
Kendall Wright, Titans:
Cordarelle Patterson, Vikings:
Brandon LaFell, Bengals: BUST
Justin Hunter, Bills:
Marquise Goodwin, Bills:
Russell Shepard, Buccaneers:
Victor Cruz, Giants:
Wide receiver is never the position to shell out for in free agency. There are almost always value players to be had. I believe Kenny Britt is the most obvious value in this year’s class. With absolutely awful QB play, he has played very well in Los Angeles. If I am the Bills, I am targeting guys like Quick, Britt, Marquess Wilson, and even Josh Gordon, if he is reinstated.
Tight ends
Martellus Bennett, Patriots:
1st 10-12 personnel Bills thinking run, bring Spikes in. Still matched up well Zach on Bennet, good coverage. Bennett wins the play tho. pic.twitter.com/21nWZtvDB1
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) October 4, 2016
Jack Doyle, Colts:
Luke Willson, Seahawks:
Jared Cook, Packers:
Jordan Cameron, Dolphins:
Ryan Griffin, Texans:
Chris Gragg, Bills: VALUE
Jacob Tamme, Falcons:
Vernon Davis, Redskins:
Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals: BUST
Dion Sims, Dolphins:
Gavin Escobar, Cowboys:
This year’s free agent tight end class is a lackluster group. Chris Gragg should be brought back, as he looked promising at the end of 2015/preseason 2016. I’m not signing any of these players, otherwise.
Offensive Tackles
Andrew Whitworth, Bengals:
Russell Okung, Broncos:
Ricky Wagner, Ravens:
Kelvin Beachum, Jaguars: VALUE
Matt Kalil, Vikings: VALUE
Riley Reiff, Lions: BUST
Sebastian, Vollmer: Patriots
Ryan Clady, Jets:
Rule #1 of free agency: buy low on former high picks on “prove it” deals. Kalil is the perfect example. He was the #4 overall pick in 2014. If Kalil is healthy, then he could prove to be an absolute low cost steal and potential long term RT. Beachum, 1 year removed from an ACL tear, is also a lower cost, buy low option. Most of these guys will be overpaid.
Interior Offensive Lineman
Kevin Zeitler, Bengals:
Nick Mangold, Jets:
T.J. Lang, Packers:
Larry Warford, Lions:
J.C. Tretter, Packers:
Mike Harris, Vikings: VALUE
Luke Joeckel, Jaguars: VALUE
Chance Warmack, Titans: VALUE
Evan Mathis, Cardinals:
Ronald Leary, Cowboys:
Joe Hawley, Buccaneers:
Jahri Evans, Saints:
John Sullivan, Redskins:
Not that the Bills need interior players, but there is a tremendous amount of value this year. Mike Harris, coming off of an illness, was excellent when healthy prior to this season. Joeckel and Warmack are, once again, low cost players with tons of talent.
EDGE Defenders
Nick Perry, Packers: BUST
Charles Johnson, Panthers:
Datone Jones, Packers: VALUE
Julius Peppers, Packers:
Jabaal Sheard, Patriots:
Demarcus Ware, Broncos:
Devin Taylor, Lions:
Damontre Moore, Seahawks: VALUE
Based on Groy’s reaction, he was responsible for Moore. That’s a tough block tho, minor tweaks to the run game must happen in bye week. pic.twitter.com/pgUGSXnuaT
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) November 9, 2016
Dwight Freeney, Falcons:
Mario Williams, Dolphins:
Lorenzo Alexander, Bills:
John Simon, Texans:
This pass rush group is very ho-hum. There are a lot of aging veterans with no true values in the group. Perry will not necessarily bust, but rather disappoint based on price tag.
Defensive Tackles
Calais Campbell, Cardinals:
Brandon Williams, Ravens:
Dontari Poe, Chiefs:
Dominique Easley, Rams: VALUE
Johnathan Hankins, Giants: VALUE
Bennie Logan, Eagles: VALUE
Nick Fairley, Saints:
Chris Baker, Redskins: BUST
Alan Branch, Patriots:
Karl Klug, Titans:
Sylvester Williams, Broncos: VALUE
Another group with a ton of value. Easley’s price would skyrocket if he could stay out of trouble. I will always take that chance. Logan and Hankins are rebound candidates. Sylvester Williams is the buy low/high talent guy in this group.
Linebackers
Dont’a Hightower, Patriots:
Pats defenders indecisive. Hightower didn’t stand a chance and Felton gets a pancake in the open field. One of several pancakes for him. pic.twitter.com/GKqAQSXjx3
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) October 4, 2016
Zach Brown, Bills: BUST
Weighing Zach Brown’s athletic ability versus competitive toughness #Bills #Billsmafia… https://t.co/cewcO1T6W5 pic.twitter.com/oft51rs4qe
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) February 10, 2017
Kevin Minter, Cardinals: VALUE
Jelani Jenkins, Dolphins: VALUE
Gerald Hodges, 49ers:
Sean Spence, Titans: VALUE
Rolando McClain, Cowboys: VALUE
Perry Riley, Raiders: BUST
Josh Bynes, Lions:
Paul Worrilow, Falcons:
This is a position I NEVER SPEND ON. It is highly replaceable, as average players are easy to find. Also, only the elite 3 down LBs make an important impact on defense, enough to truly spend on. You won’t find those here. Instead, spend on those guys who keep popping up as “buy lows,” such as Kevin Minter and Sean Spence. I always take chances on the drug guys, like Rolando McClain, who is a perfect candidate. Yes, Zach Brown is a bust candidate. He is simply too inconsistent for my liking, but I will grant you he fits very well in McDermott’s defense. He is a true 2017 type of football player who excels in pass defense.
Cornerbacks
A.J. Bouye, Texans:
Stephon Gilmore, Bills: BUST
Logan Ryan, Patriots:
Theme all night: Logan Ryan targeted 16x/allowed 12 recs for 101. Woods is a tough player! pic.twitter.com/IASqg35n4z
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) October 3, 2016
Prince Amukamara, Jaguars: VALUE
Morris Claiborne, Cowboys: VALUE
Dre Kirkpatrick, Bengals:
Alterraun Verner, Buccaneers: VALUE
Captain Munnerlyn, Vikings:
Sam Shields, Packers: VALUE IF HEALTHY
Terence Newman, Vikings:
Justin Gilbert, Steelers: VALUE
DJ Hayden, Raiders: VALUE
Darrelle Revis, Jets:
Brandon Carr, Cowboys:
A lot like wide receiver, corner is arguably the most overpaid position in free agency, but this year has some great value options. There are a lot of players with talent who are looking to “prove it.” I am taking chances on guys like Gilbert and Hayden. Morris Claiborne is a guy I have always liked. If healthy, he is a shutdown CB. Verner is also a very good fit in the Bills’ defense.
Safeties
Jonathan Cyprien, Jaguars: VALUE
Cyprien is one of my favorite safeties to watch. Recognizes guard pulling, gets downhill, keeps play inside where Smith cleans up. pic.twitter.com/vNEbQvkkJD
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) November 27, 2016
Tony Jefferson, Cardinals:
Barry Church, Cowboys: BUST
D.J. Swearinger, Cardinals: VALUE
Micah Hyde, Packers:
T.J. McDonald, Rams:
Jairus Byrd, Saints: VALUE
⚡️ “Jairus Byrd”https://t.co/ukHqZL9sn1
— Cover 1 (@Cover1Bills) March 1, 2017
Jahleel Addae, Chargers:
Bradley McDougald, Buccaneers:
JJ Wilcox, Cowboys:
Matt Elam, Ravens: VALUE
Will Hill, Ravens: VALUE
In case you didn’t notice, I almost never prefer to pay in free agency. I prefer value players who are high on talent and motivation, but who have relatively low market value. Buying low is a practice I regularly participate in. Give me a first round pedigree like Matt Elam all day over an overachiever for one season, such as Barry Church.
With so many roster moves on the horizon, it will certainly be an exciting offseason to monitor!
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