Building on the work we did for the Bills’ measurables, it’s time to start comparing this year’s draft class to the physical traits of the players the Bills have rostered. We looked at what length arms DBs have had in the McBeane Era Bills, but how do the prospects fit into that scale? “Rostered” is an important distinction here because those 2017 and 2018 teams still had numerous players on the roster that were rollovers from the previous administration, so of those players’ measurables distort the average. “Rostered” also does not include players who were cut before the season started but were drafted. Ultimately, we’re looking for how does this year’s draft class tack up against who has played for the Bills.
Bills’ Specific Relative Athletic Score
We’ve talked a lot about RAS, to the point that you should have a cursory understanding of Kent Lee Platte’s work. What we’re looking at now is similar, just minus all the intelligence and leg work. To boil down all the measurable data we get on prospects from the combine and pro days relative to those of the players the Bills have rostered, I created the Bills’ Relative Athletic Size, colloquially known as BRA Size because I am forever a 12-year-old boy and it makes me giggle.
The chart below gives you the measurables that are currently available for each 2023 NFL draft prospect. Their scores in each column have been formatted according to the one standard deviation from averages of the McBeane Era Bills by position. For example, the Bill’s average 40 Yard Dash time in the McBeane Era is 4.55, with a standard deviation of 0.08, so any time within 4.47 – 4.63 falls within one standard deviation. One standard deviation accounts for ~68% of all players the Bills have rostered. A second standard deviation accounts for ~95% of all players, but really you can just look at the range because of how far out a second deviation goes. I know all my nerdiest friends are shaking their heads, but we’re looking at who falls within one standard deviation.
Today, we’re looking at DBs. Results that are worse, are in red. Results that are within the range are yellow. Results that are better are in green. So, a DB prospect who weighs less than 184.8 lbs is in red for weight. Say that same prospect ran a 10 Yard Split that was under 1.52. That result would still be in green because for that category, lower is better.
To determine BRA Size, a player is given 1 point for each yellow category and 1.5 points for each green category. No points are removed for red – like the old baseball scout adage goes, “Once a player has demonstrated a skill, they own it,” so we won’t be subtracting from a 40 time because their hands are small. The players you’ll see in this chart are only from the combine for brevity’s sake. If you want to see all prospects and pro days results, use this link:
Fair warning, the totals can take a minute to load, so be patient if it’s not processing immediately. Also, the dark black line separates the combine results on top from pro days. Some names will be duplicate because they were both in the combine and participated in a pro day. Apologies for this page, as the names are not in alphabetical order. Start with either CB or S, then look for school in alphabetical order. There are occasionally formatting issues, and I couldn’t get this page corrected without disrupting the scores. The rest of the pages are arranged alphabetically by first name.
The overall average BRA Size was 6.4. The 14 from Daniel Scott might be the biggest BRA Size from the two years I’ve now done this. There are not that many red scores here, but from the full google sheet, if the Bills draft Tylin Knight from Southern Miss and his 8 red, I will be deleting this post and everything else I’ve written on the topic.
A few notes:
- Ant Prohaska favorite Chris Smith, S UGA, scored a 7, but with zero green.
- Joey Porter scored a 12 and I’m not sure I could love him more.
- Erik Turner has mentioned Jartavious Martin from Illinois as a fit a few times and he came away with a 10.
Please know that I am fully aware these spreadsheets don’t replace any of the work on evaluating prospects from their film, medicals, interviews, etc. I would argue with you if you said it does. This is simply information to put prospects into a McBeane context, and no one else was doing it. Trust me. I looked everywhere. The Bills could very well draft a player who doesn’t rank highly in BRA Size, but that gives us information as well. There would have to be components to his game on film that encourage the Bills to overlook their tendencies.
Last year’s first round pick, Kaiir Elam, scored an 8 BRA Size if you’re interested.
I can hear #BillsMafia wondering, "What was Elam's BRA Size?" Don't worry. Low is here to help. A very solid 8.— Low Ceilings l Cover 1 🏈 (@LowBuffa) April 29, 2022
Also, compared to McBeane Era CBs, the only #BillsMeasurables he was worse on is Bench#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/jnR0ZOcGm2
**This work is not possible without the combine and pro day spreadsheets by Alex Katson (@alexkatson on Twitter). Give him a follow if this work lights your fire.