2023 NFL season: Odds remain in Bills favor

05/26/2023
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The Buffalo Bills finished the 2022 season with a record of 13-3, they won the AFC East for the third straight season, joined the Kansas City Chiefs as the only teams to win a playoff game in three straight years, and their quarterback finished third in the Associated Press MVP voting.

Buffalo finished second in points per game at 28.4 and allowed the second-fewest points at just 17.9 points per contest. The cream also rose to the top of the analytics community. In Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Bills were second in that metric on defense and fourth on offense, and Josh Allen was the top-graded QB according to Pro Football Focus.

The Bills did lose Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and starting running back Devin Singletary in free agency, but bolstered the safety position by bringing back Jordan Poyer and signing Taylor Rapp. They upgraded the offensive line in both free agency and the draft while signing depth at RB and wide receiver, not to mention trading up in the first round of the draft for tight end (pass-catching offensive weapon) Dalton Kincaid from Utah.

Despite all the positives in Buffalo’s favor, there is a narrative (especially in New Jersey and South Florida) that the Bills have regressed and aren’t just on notice in the AFC East, but should be worried about falling out of the playoffs altogether. The geniuses that make the books, and help fund the skyscrapers in Las Vegas, strongly disagree with this stance. Let’s look at where those sharps believe the Bills will end up in 2023.

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Super Bowl

Let’s start with the biggest fish, the Lombardi Trophy. As of writing this article, Buffalo is a top-three favorite to win the Super Bowl for every site I checked. The Bills are the second largest favorites (behind KC +650) at +850, per Bet MGM. They slot in third, according to DraftKings, also at +850, the 49ers join KC ahead of Buffalo. Bet Rivers also have them in third, but this time behind the Chiefs and Eagles. So, no matter where you look, the Bills are a win over the Chiefs (Buffalo won 24-20 in Kansas City last year) from making a trip to the Super Bowl, per Las Vegas odds makers. Let’s examine how they get to the championship game.

2023 Win Total

I checked five of the most prominent books, and they unanimously tabbed Buffalo with a 10.5 over/under win total for 2023. The odds you can get for that number fluctuate a little depending on where you look. The best odds I found when taking the over sat at -125, and the worst was -165. Flipping to the under, the best line I found was +120, and the worst came in at +100. While the over/under may sit at 10.5, DraftKings did a game-by-game analysis. They favored Buffalo to win 14 games. The three losses come by one point at Cincinnati Week 9, by two points at Philadelphia Week 12, and by a 3.5 split at Kansas City Week 14. This would mean Buffalo starts the season 8-0 before finishing with a four-game winning streak. A 14-3 record overall and 6-0 in the AFC East would almost guarantee another two home playoff games and put them in a race with the Chiefs for the No. 1 overall seed. Ending the regular season 11 games over .500 and handing each divisional foe a pair of defeats also means Buffalo secures the AFC East…AGAIN!

AFC EAST

As indicated above, the Bills are once again seen as the frontrunners in the AFC East. DraftKings has Buffalo as +115 to win the division. The Jets are in second place at +280. This is a common theme with all four sites I checked out having the division going Buffalo, New York, Miami, and then New England. Fan Duel picks the Bills to win the division at +130, BetMGM is +135, and PointsBet is +130. So, no matter where you donate your money, the Bills are again the beast of the East.

NFL MVP

Switching over to the most prestigious individual award, the theme continues with the Bills quarterback, Josh Allen, in the top three to win the award. Right now, FanDuel gives Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow even odds at +700. Caesars moves KC’s signal caller up to +650 with Allen and Burrow just behind at +750. Draft Kings has a minor separation between these three with Mahomes once again at +650, Burrow at +700, and Allen at +750. 

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