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Decoding the Bills’ Offseason: Defensive Innovations and Draft Implications

Erik Turner
03/25/2025
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While the Bills’ 2024 season didn’t end how all of us wanted, I must say this offseason has been so much fun. Studying how the season progressed and ultimately ended has brought to light a lot of context that set up the offseason and what this teams needs to do to evolve. I figured that since I have a platform to flesh out some of these ideas and nuggets, I would share some of my thoughts mid Free Agency and before the draft.

Quick Game & Press Coverage

After meticulously reviewing the stats and game film, and engaging in behind-the-scenes discussions with players and in The Film Room, several emerging trends have come to light. Little breadcrumbs that I have picked up on over the last month or so that lead me to believe we actually will see some changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The hiring of Mike Pellegrino to Coach the Nickel Backs, and bringing on Ryan Nielsen as a Senior Defensive Assistant definitely opened my eyes as to the defense possibly making some tweaks. Pellegrino came over from the New England Patriots. He is highly respected across the league but comes from a defensive coverage system that is multiple, but one that hangs its hat on Man Coverage. Nielsen, the former Defensive Coordinator of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons typically runs a Man Centric Coverage system as well, but more of a Zone Match type. His mantra is “nothing cheap (short/underneath) and nothing deep.”

Where many plays may look like Man Coverage, it actually was Zone that turned to Man because of the Route combinations or Route stem.

 

These hirings, combined with Head Coach Sean McDermott’s declaration—“we are going to do, and evolve in the offseason, how we need to go and evolve defensively. I think it’s important that you have a vision for what the league is and where offenses are going and again how we need to be out in front of that curve”—really set my wheels in motion.

Having studied different situations the Bills’ defense faced, I began to realize that they struggled with Quick Game. Passes that are typically from 1-to-3 Step drops usually under 2.5 seconds. The Bills were ranked 26th in Defensive Pass EPA/Dropback, 27th in Completion percentage and 28th in Passes Defensed in Quick Game situations. It was a drastic change from the year before, even with the Bills finishing 2nd in Turnovers forced with 36, really their only saving grace on that side of the ball. Much like we saw in the Kansas City Game, when offenses want to get the ball out quickly, the pass rush is minimized if the defense doesn’t disguise the coverage well, or is playing a lot of off and soft coverage. Starting Defensive End Greg Rousseau referenced it in our Film Room Session.

 

You can see this reflected in the statistics below. The Bills were also middle of the pack in Press at 64.3% in 2024 where as they were 5th at 71.1% in 2023. If you don’t close down some of the air space, offenses will take advantage and get the ball out of their hands quickly.

 

So when I was prepping for our Film Room session with Bills’ Linebacker Terrel Bernard, I wanted to ask him about any trends that he noticed opposing offenses using against them week in and week out, and another breadcrumb seemed to be revealed. In this amazing segment, Bernard immediately pinpointed winning on 1st down. Allowing opposing offenses to operate ahead of the chains with 2nd or 3rd and 5 or less, allows the offense to stay in the drivers seat. It allows them to remain comfortable. Bernard wrapped up by saying “I think that’s where we take the next step, we win more 1st downs and then we tighten it up in the back end a little bit and then that gives us a little more time to upfront to get to the quarterback.”

Given Bernard’s response, I do think it is fair to assume the Bills will play tighter in coverage in 2025. Opposing offenses will want to continue to use the run game AND Quick game to keep their offenses on track, possess the ball in order to keep it out of the hands of the reigning MVP Josh Allen. I don’t expect a drastic overhaul to Man coverage, they will likely play a lot of Zone Match coverage that resembles Man coverage. Regardless, I do think the Bills will play more Press, in order to stunt the Quick game – to deter the Quick game but also put their corners in positions to make more plays on the ball, something they struggled to do last year in Quick game situations. And for all of you draftniks, seeing as how the Bills don’t have a true Cornerback two right now, I would be looking into corners that are proficient in and around the line of scrimmage. Guys who can win early on in a receiver’s release package and make plays on the ball in the short to intermediate area of the field. These are the sort of guys that I assume they will be looking for.

Run Defense on 1st down

While the Bills run defense was 7th in Run Stuff percentage on 1st down last year, they also surrendered 47 runs of 10+ yards on 1st down which was the most in the league, 17.5% of rushes against the Bills on first down went for a 1st down or touchdown the highest in the league, and they allowed 4.7 yards per rush on that primary down which was 23rd overall. That is not a recipe for success if we are talking about making an offense uncomfortable. I also don’t expect that formula for opposing offenses to change, given Bernard’s opinion.

 

It’s pretty obvious the Bills need to be better against the run overall, but especially on 1st downs because that sets up their entire defensive philosophy. Their early down aggressive, trigger happy style has led to them being a feast or famine defense. Especially when you consider they are a Two High Safety defense, who typically is in Nickel AND asks their defensive front to defend the run with only Six defenders. The Bills had six defenders in the box on 305 snaps on first down last season, the 2nd most.

In our interview with Rousseau, he talked about how the Bills’ Two High Safety Structure and playing with light boxes to stop the pass – puts a lot of stress on him and his defensive line mates. At times, they are asked to play a gap and a half because they are light in the box or the defender that is in the run fit may be coming from the defensive secondary like we saw a lot when they play Quarters Coverage.

Rousseau also reiterated some things that Bernard talked about when it came to being better on early downs. Rousseau stated that winning comes down to “stopping the run on 1st down, and forcing those situations that we want to live in.” Such situations as 2nd and 3rd and long, so that they can pin their ears back and more be creative when they want to be.

 

But I think the comment that really won me over, was when I asked about how, if a bigger, space eating defensive tackle type would affect him as a pass rusher. Rousseau stated that he believes it could help him and others rush the passer because when you have that sort of defensive tackle in that A-Gap, the guard sometimes has to hang longer on the double team between he and the guard. That guard can’t help tackles with the defensive ends out wide if he has to hang longer inside to help with the nose tackle. It could essentially get the defensive ends some more 1 on 1 looks when rushing the passer.

 

When Rousseau and Bernard drop these sort of hints, I don’t take it lightly. These are two cornerstones on the Bills defense and will be for years to come. I do believe the knowledge they dropped on us has draft implications. I think one way the defense can EVOLVE, get better on early downs and in many ways take stress off of the defense is for them to add a Nose Tackle that can take some heat off of the defensive line. Does it have to be early? Absolutely not, there are these sort of role players throughout the draft. But, if the Bills were to add a big, strong, space eating nose tackle type, hopefully one that has some athleticism, I do think that it could be a force multiplier. Getting a guy that can control the A-gaps on early downs, in some capacity, would allow everyone else to One Gap in most situations. While at the same time not totally change their Two High Safety structure by bringing extra defenders down into the box to help stop the run. While I have been much more resistant to the idea in the past because the front office’s actions have rarely pointed in that direction, I just see too many breadcrumbs laid by the mouthpiece of the defense in Bernard and one of the home grown defensive ends in this scheme in Rousseau.

 

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#bills | Buffalo bills | Greg Rousseau | Mock Draft | NFL Draft | Scheme | terrel bernard

Erik Turner

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