Bills Points Per Game/TTO Vs. Top 16 DVOA


I took every team and found the games they played the Top 16 in Defensive DVOA. I then charted the Offensive Points Per Game against those teams, as well as the True Turnovers for the offense during that game. I deducted all Defensive and Special Teams TDs to be sure it was offensively focused.

The Bills came in at 19th in the NFL in that measure. So, in the 7 games they played against teams ranked in the Top 16 of DVOA (BAL, ARI, NE, LA, NE, SEA, PIT) they averaged 19.29 Offensive Points per game.

We watched their Points per game number drop from in the top 10 in the traditional form, to 16th vs winning teams, to 19th vs defenses ranked in the top 16 in DVOA. 

What was also interesting is they only averaged 5.29 True Turnovers in those games, which was 6th in the league. The top 5: ATL (28.45 PPG), WAS (21.5 PPG), GB (26.86), IND (21), NO (28.82).

None below 20 PPG. What this tells us is they are not turning the sustained drives they are having into points. Could that be a QB correlation?

The Qbs on those teams: Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins (I am not a Cousins fan), Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees.

Tyrod Taylor does not belong in that group. It is arguable he is a major part of the reason their PPG is so low compared to their TTO.

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