Bills vs. Dolphins: 5 Keys to Victory in NFL Week 3

09/23/2022
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The Buffalo Bills continue their 2022 season as they visit their division foe Miami Dolphins on Sunday. After opening the season with a pair of primetime games, Buffalo returns to head coach Sean McDermott’s preferred time slot of 1:00 PM. The people in Las Vegas started this game with the Bills as a 3.5-point favorite. That number has been bet up to six points at the time of writing this article, but all that matters to Bills Mafia is can their squad squish the fish and move to 3-0? Here are five keys to victory for Buffalo in Week 3.

OH MY JOSH

Let Josh Allen be Josh Allen. He is the early MVP favorite for a reason and his stats over the years versus Miami are pretty awesome, too. Over the last seven meetings between the Bills and Dolphins, “the creature” is 7-0 with 19 touchdowns to three interceptions. He’s tossed for over 250 yards per game and completed 65% of his passes. Want to know the crazy part? Those numbers would be poor for what Allen has done in 2022. In seven quarters of play, the Wyoming product has 614 passing yards and seven touchdowns while completing 75.4% of his passes. Whatever Ken Dorsey is drawing up, Allen and the Bills are executing, so as simple as it sounds, keep doing more of it.

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THROW THE DAMN BALL

This is a continuation of the above point that Josh Allen is good at football and the last one, that you want to score a lot of points. The Bills’ best combination of those two things is to let it rip and let it rip often. Right now Allen is second in the league in completion percentage (75.4%), and Stefon Diggs has 270 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 20 catches. Plus Gabe Davis, despite missing a game, still has four receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown. Dorsey + Allen + Diggs + Davis = let it rip tater chip!

PARTY IN THE BACKFIELD

If you’ve read any of my previous articles, you’re probably asking yourself: “when is Greg going to get numbers nerdy?” Well, here ya go. According to ESPN, Miami has the 23rd ranked PASS BLOCK WIN RATE by being successful on pass blocks just 56% of the time. Conversely, the Bills have the fourth highest ranked PASS RUSH WIN RATE of 53%. Not nerdy enough? Ok! Buffalo has the highest sack percentage in the NFL right now while blitzing the second-fewest amount of times. They are winning with their front four. It’s also not just about the sacks. The Bills are moving quarterbacks off their mark even when not tackling them. They have 26 pressures which is the eighth most in football. Still not nerdy enough? I got you! Buffalo’s 90.2 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus is almost 10 points clear of the second-place Dallas Cowboys. The Bills also have three top-20 graded pass rushers in Boogie Basham, Von Miller, and Greg Rousseau. Here’s the last stat I’ll add for how good Buffalo has been at getting into the backfield: Von Miller, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, and Shaq Lawson are top-15 in pass rush win percentage among guys with at least ten attempts.

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YAKKITY YAK, NO MORE YAC

The Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are first and third in the NFL in receiving yards with 284 and 240, respectively. However, it’s what they do with the ball in their hands after the catch that hurts the most. Through two games, they are the top two WRs in YAC (yards after catch) with Waddle leading the way at 116 yards and Hill at 104. Whether it is a corner or safety tasked with covering those two, you must make the tackle as quick as possible. If the Bills’ back seven can make tackles ASAP it will change things drastically. Why? Well, the duo is just 85th and 87th in aDot (average depth of target), meaning that they aren’t catching the ball downfield but rather in space and making moves.

ALL GAS, NO BRAKES

I will write this in each key to victory article for the entirety of 2022. The Bills have the MVP favorite in Josh Allen, who can throw the ball to one of the best receiving duos in the league in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. When the opportunity to score points is there, Buffalo must keep adding them. Don’t believe me? Look no further than Miami outscoring Baltimore 28-3 last week in their crazy come-from-behind win. Still don’t believe me? The Raiders squandered a 20-point lead at home versus Arizona. What was the common denominator between the two games? The Ravens and Raiders took their foot off the throttle and provided a sliver of hope to their opponent. The Bills have scored 31 and 41 against the Rams and Titans this season, and despite playing a lot of their bench in Week 2, they had their foot on the throats until the job was finished.

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