5 unbelievable stats from Bills win vs. Dolphins

01/16/2023
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The Buffalo Bills are once again in the final eight of the NFL’s playoffs after a nail-biting 34-31 win against division rival Miami at home in the AFC Wild Card round. The win, coupled with Cincinnati knocking off the Ravens finally gives us the matchup of the Bills vs. Bengals, but this one will be in Buffalo thanks to having a better record than Cincinnati. Before we turn that page completely to next Sunday at 3:00, here are a handful of “would you believe me if I said…” stats from your Buffalo Bills through the Wild Card round of the 2022 season.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… Josh Allen continues to re-write the history book?

That title for a paragraph is going to be a common one for years to come. This time it was Josh Allen becoming the first quarterback to ever have multiple touchdown passes against one opponent in 11 straight games. Allen’s three TD playoff performance against Miami continued his streak against the Dolphins and pushed him beyond the ten straight of Dan Marino.

If you’re asking when was the last time Josh Allen didn’t throw for at least two touchdowns versus Miami, well the answer is NEVER. Allen has had a pair of touchdowns through the air in each of his 11 games against the team from Miami Gardens. To take this a step further, Allen is now 9-2 against the Dolphins, so each of those tuddies has been important beyond padding the boxscore.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the Bills and Chiefs have separated themselves from the rest of the AFC, maybe the entire NFL?

“It’s hard to win in the NFL” is a common phrase we hear from coaches and front-office staffers when they are asked about why their team hasn’t won more. Well, the Bills and Chiefs have shown it isn’t as hard as they want to make it out to be over the last three seasons, with each making it to the second round of the postseason during that span.

Buffalo and Kansas City are the only AFC teams that can make that claim, Jacksonville hasn’t been in the playoffs over those two years, and the Bengals didn’t make it back in 2020-21. The Bills and Chiefs can be joined by old friend Tom Brady and his Bucs should they win against Dallas, but if the Cowboys hold serve it would make this a table reserved for two.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… Josh Allen’s postseason career is on an MVP pace?

Josh Allen has played seven career postseason games, and his stats are pretty phenomenal. To date, the Bills QB has over 2,000 yards passing with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has also rushed for a TD and caught another. If you extrapolate that over a 17-game NFL season, you come up with MVP-level stats… but against the best competition in the playoffs. I won’t make you do the math. I did it for you. In a 17-game season, Allen’s postseason would be 5,027 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He would add 949 yards with his legs as well as two more touchdowns. But wait, there’s more! Allen would also have a pair of receiving touchdowns. That would be worthy of an MVP, and it’s only stats in the highest leverage games.

Would You Believe Me If I Said… Kaiir Elam needs more snaps?

Rookie corner Kaiir Elam showed why the Bills were willing to trade up for him in the first round of the draft with his standout performance against Miami in his first playoff appearance. The first-timer earned 44 snaps for 62% of the Bills’ defensive plays against the Dolphins on Sunday. The 62% snap share was the second most on the season, only behind taking every defensive snap against the Steelers. Elam rewarded Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s trust in him by coming down with a key interception and almost having a second. The newbie accounted for a pair of pass deflections and added two tackles to his ledger. With Tre White rounding back into form and the possibility of Micah Hyde coming back if Buffalo wins next week, the Bills secondary has become good… dare I steal a line from R.J. and say, “scary good!”

Would You Believe Me If I Said… the analytics community never lost faith in Buffalo?

Miami came into Buffalo for the Wild Card game and gave the Bills everything they could handle for four quarters, but the win probability never swung all the way into the Dolphins’ favor. ESPN’s win probability never had Buffalo lower than a 62.7% chance to win, and that was when the Bills trailed Miami 24-20 in the third quarter. I had the NextGenStats live game page open the entire game, and the lowest I saw the Bills’ chances get to was 67%. Either way you cut it, the numbers still favored Buffalo to win 2-to-1, and, as we know, they were right.

2 Comments

  1. Jomo

    Please check/change headline.

    Reply
    • GregVorse

      Updated. Thanks!

      Reply

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