Bills vs. Eagles: 3 best prop bets for NFL Week 12

11/26/2023
DB+

The 2023 NFL season is roughly two-thirds of the way completed, and Week 12 sends your Buffalo Bills to the City of Brotherly Shove to fight the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have the best record in the league, and the Bills have felt like Team Turmoil based on a lot of fans’ reactions throughout the year, and that includes firing their offensive coordinator.

New Bills’ OC Joe Brady had a tough test against a good Jets’ defense in his first game calling plays for Buffalo. Like many thought, the offense was not completely different. However, the Bills used motion more than any other week this year. Check out the chart Erik Turner pulled from Tru Media.

Whether this was game-specific to the Jets or part of how Brady plans to tune up the offense will start to be shown with his second game calling the plays. Motion provides information to the offense, creates leverage, induces hesitation from the defense, and can build advantageous mismatches. A lot of us at Cover 1 were calling for increased motion to begin the season and especially when it plummeted during the three weeks preceding Ken Dorsey’s dismissal.

Three Props also loved the Bills’ new OC. Our first clean sweep since Week 5 after back-to-back losing weeks is the jolt we needed to supercharge this last third of the regular season.

  • Breece Hall o23.5 receiving yards, -120, 0.5u, Result: 50 receiving yards✅
  • James Cook o14.5 receiving yards at FD, -114, 0.5, Result: 27 receiving yards✅
  • Khalil Shakir longest reception o14.5 at FD, -114, 0.5u, Result: longest reception 81 yards

Shakir had already hit his longest reception over and then added the 81-yard game-breaker for good measure.

Thanksgiving was a great chance to recharge, and now it’s time to hunker down for the stretch run. The Bills are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league and anybody can go on a run at any time. Let’s go!

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

  1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
  2. Don’t chase a bet.
  3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
  4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
  5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

Defensively, Philly has used middle-of-the-field open (MOFO) coverages at a 46% clip in Weeks 7-11, which is the sixth most in the NFL. Coverages like Cover 2, 4, and 6 are considered MOFO style coverages and it’s determined by the positioning of the safeties. Two deep safeties is middle open, while a single high safety is middle closed. While the Eagles use MOFO at a high rate, they are not terribly successful with it over that time span, ranking 28th in success rate. Philly’s success rate for its two high shell usage only ranks 22nd against the pass.

Over the last month, Philly has used a four-man rush 81% of the time for third most, and they have a middle-of-the-pack success rate doing so (17th). Some key stats on how the Bills have done against four-man rushes in the same time span:

  • Best pressure rate allowed (21.3%)
  • Third most net yards (867)
  • Fifth best Points Earned/Play (0.229)
  • Sixth highest completions percentage (73%)
  • Tenth-best QB Rating

The Bills’ rushing game could very well struggle when facing off with the likes of Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and the rest of the Eagles front seven. Philliy’s defense ranks fifth best in the run in DVOA. They are a solid front and difficult to run on, especially when considering the trouble large, earth-mover-type defensive ends can give Mitch Morse.

The Eagles rank 19th against the pass in DVOA for the season. If the Bills are going to stay in this game, it will be by Josh Allen and the Bills’ pass-catchers having a strong day. That feels more possible now than it did before the research.

Prediction: BUF 24 – PHI 30

For a thorough breakdown, check out Uber Hansen’s Game Matchups Preview.

Bills vs. Eagles: 5 keys to victory in NFL Week 12

DVOA Matchup

Injury Reports

Be sure to check the inactives about 90 minutes before game time.

Weather

From the National Weather Service:

Sunday
A slight chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Recommendations

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards

Book Line O U
DK 49.5 -120 -110
FD 54.5 -114 -114
MGM 49.5 -115 -115

Those middle-of-the-field open coverages the Eagles have been using since Week 7? MOFO coverages are where Dalton Kincaid has started to assume command of the Bills’ target share. Over that time, Kincaid has the most targets of any Bills’ receiver against Cover 2, 4, and 6 with 16. Stefon Diggs is second with 10. Kincaid has 16 receptions on 16 targets for 112 yards versus those coverages through those five games. When facing all types of zone coverage over Weeks 7 – 11, Kincaid ranks 13th in receiving yards among ALL receivers, not just TE (IYKYK).

Recommendation: Dalton Kincaid o49.5 receiving yards, -115 at MGM, 0.5u

Khalil Shakir Longest Reception

Book Line O U
DK 16.5 -120 -110
FD
MGM 16.5 -115 -115

Back to the well, yes, but it worked so incredibly beautifully last week that there is no reason to turn away. Your wallet doesn’t care if we sound repetitive. Just like last week, Shakir’s longest receptions outpace this number significantly. His longest receptions since Week 7, when his target share began to pick up: 13, 30, 23, 24, 81. That 13 in Week 7 came against the Patriots where he dropped what should have been a 20+ yard touchdown. Again, looking at how the Bills perform versus MOFO coverages since Week 7, Shakir leads the team with 180 yards on eight receptions from eight targets. Shakir has a Boom rate of 50% over that time frame in case you’re wondering if those numbers are skewed by just one or two explosive catches.

I genuinely think the books have not caught up to Shakir’s usage yet. This might be the last week for it though.

Recommendation: Khalil Shakir longest receptions o16.5, -115 at MGM, 0.5u.

Josh Allen Rushing Yards

Book Line O U
DK 26.5 -130 +100
FD 29.5 -114 -114
MGM 26.5 -120 -110

The Eagles have been one of the best teams against QB runs since Week 7. They’ve only allowed 58 yards to QB rushes and they have the second-best yards/attempt at only 4.5. So, what gives?

This recommendation is about the need to weaponize Allen’s legs more than any statistically-based prop bet. Essentially, the rest of the season is must-win game after must-win game for the Bills, and this stretch of opponents is the toughest of the season. The Bills NEED to use every weapon at their disposal and have to utilize every possible mismatch to take down one of the best teams in the league in their stadium. It’s break glass in case of emergency time.

Also, Philly has not faced a QB who can run like Allen. Here’s the Eagles full list of QBs they’ve squared off against: Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Sam Howell (x2), Matthew Stafford, Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes. The only two mobile QBs on that list are Howell and Mahomes. Howell ran for 40 and 11 yards in the two matchups, and Mahomes ran for 38.

Recommendation: Josh Allen rushing yards o26.5, -120 at MGM, 0.5u

Conclusion

Even though we swept last week, this was the best part of the day:

It’s me. I’m whoever.

I sweat these props each week more than anything else I bet, and Andy building off of one of them was super cool to hear. I’d love to know if you’ve won any money from this column whether it’s in the Cover 1 Slack community or on Twitter. I’ll still do it for my own wallet, but we publish it for you all, so let’s hear it!

Record: 20-13. 60.6%, +13.39u

You can find Chris on Twitter (@lowbuffa), getting dirty in #MafiaGardens, or watching football. Go Bills!

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