It’s already Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season! With the easy-division defiant 17 game schedule, I believe this means we are roughly two/eleventieths of the way through the season (I’m really good with math). Cherish every moment, Bills Mafia, because it goes by too fast. This week we get to treasure another edition of Sean McDermott versus a first or second-year QB. The Bills travel to the newly owned Commanders, who might actually have a home-field advantage again. For the first time in 20 years, Commanders’ fans have reason to be excited about their team

We’re excited about how last week brought us our first (of many) winning weeks. We went 2-1 on our official picks and a winning bonus in there as well because Dalton Kincaid will not be denied. To recap:

• Gabe Davis o3.5 rec – six catches on the day
• Josh Allen longest rush, o13.5 – three yds
• Tyler Bass o7.5 pts – eight pts
• Bonus (but not part of the official record) Dalton Kincaid o3.5 rec – five catches

It usually takes about a month into the season to get beyond small sample size issues and be able to start to lean on what the stats and your eyes are telling you, but we’re getting closer to actionable data.

Hit the ground running.

First Things First

Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.

1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
2. Don’t chase a bet.
3. Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
4. Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
5. See Rule #1.

If you think you might have a gambling problem, please contact any of these agencies for help.

National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
Gambling Anonymous National Hotline: (888) GA-HELPS (888-424-3577)
Gambling Assistance Hotline: (800) 522-4700

Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.

Game Script

Keep scrolling and you’ll get to a section entitled weather, and Tropical Storm Ophelia (write your own jokes) could be hitting FedEx Field at game time. Or it might be a beautiful day for football. Both of those weather reports are out there. Betting on games that may be adversely affected by bad weather is as tricky as betting on the weather itself. That said, the National Weather Service says most of the rain should be done by 2:00 p.m., and the wind gusts should max out at 11 mph. Using that report, the weather should not have that drastic an impact. Take the warning though. If you’re more worried about the weather, you don’t have to bet every game.

What kind of column would this be if we didn’t lay down some bets, and that process always starts with our game script.

With second-year pro Sam Howell as their starting QB, the boys from DC are pretty much just running shotgun: 84% of their plays are from the gun, which is the second most behind CIN, and the league average is 59.6% (Sumer Sports). Other highlights of Washington’s offensive tendencies through only two weeks (all stats from SIS):

• 11 personnel (one RB, one TE) 73% (seventh most)
• RPOs 19% of their plays (fifth most)
• When they use an RPO, they run out of it the vast majority of the time (22 runs to three passes, but those runs only have a 36% success rate (25th))
• Their screens have rightfully gotten some attention. They are using screens at the 10th highest rate, but that’s only seventh snaps at this point in the season.

McDermott against first and second-year QBs (shout out to Matt Parrino for the research):

If you’re keeping track at home, that’s 27 INT across 26 games.

DVOA Matchup

Bills back to clean sweep DVOA graphics this week after righting the ship in week 2.

Although they face a much better overall team heading down to DC this Sunday.

Tune in tonight at 9pm EST LIVE for the @Cover1 Buffalo matchup show to dive deeper into this week's game! pic.twitter.com/LY8xW1JJyX

— Aaron Quinn (@AaronQuinn716) September 20, 2023

Bills vs. Commanders: 5 keys to victory in NFL Week 3

Injury Reports

As always, be sure to check the game-day inactives before game time.

Friday injury report pic.twitter.com/MpicW8KIUo

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) September 22, 2023

Final Injury Report: pic.twitter.com/g2MZvxfVQc

— Washington Commanders PR (@Wash_PR) September 22, 2023

Weather

From the National Weather Service: Showers, mainly before 2:00 p.m. High near 68. East wind around 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 80% — new precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Recommendations

Greg Rousseau Sacks

Howell has the ninth fewest pass attempts under 2.5 seconds, and on average he has the 11th longest average time to throw at 2.71 (tied with Josh Allen). Howell’s average depth of target (ADoT) on those 29 attempts under 2.5 seconds is by far the lowest in the league at 1.1 (PFF). On the flip side, predictably, Howell has the sixth most attempts over 2.5 seconds with 41, which is 63% of his overall pass attempts. When he holds the ball that long, his pressure-to-sack rate (the percentage of times pressures become sacks) is a league-high 40.9% (PFF)).

On top of that, Andrew Wylie is the Washington RT. His blocking efficiency ranks 32nd of all tackles with more than 50% of snaps.

Recommendation: o0.75 sacks, 0.5u. FD has Rousseau + a Bills win as a Game Special at +170, and that’s where I made my bet.

Sam Howell Interceptions

You read the thing about McDermott versus first and second-year starters, right? You didn’t just jump straight to the recommendations and ignore all the labor I put in up there, right? RIGHT?!

The Bills will show Howell things he hasn’t seen before. The Commies should be down and need to throw.

Recommendation: STOP SKIPPING TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS. Also, o0.5 INT, 0.5u

Bills vs. Commanders: Top 5 Storylines to Watch in NFL Week 3

Gabe Davis Receptions

We will go to this well until the books catch up. The vig is higher than desirable, but free money is free money.

If you need some stats – WAS has surrendered 10 receptions on 13 attempts vs. 12 personnel so far this season. Plus, the Commies CBs are small comparatively: Forbes is 6’0″ 180 lbs, and Fuller is 5’11” 198 lbs. Especially when facing Forbes, Davis and his 6’3″ 225 lbs is a significant advantage.

Recommendation: o2.5, 0.5u. The recommendation would easily be o3.5 if it weren’t for the possibility of weather issues

Conclusion

I wouldn’t hold it against you if the weather scared you off. It’s your money. Sometimes you can make the weather play in your favor though, and that leads to our unofficial bonus bet: first half under 21.5. The weather’s biggest impact on the game should come in the first half. Combine that with two solid defenses and Sean McDermott facing a first-year starter, and you get a game that could very well start out slow and sloppy.

Bonus bonus: I can not stop loving Dalton, and you can’t make me. DK and MGM have only posted Dalton Kincaid rec yards at this point. If his receptions comes in at 3.5, I’d take the over.

Record 3-3, +3.15u