I am sure you have all heard, or even said, the phrase “You win championships with a strong defense and run game.” To a certain extent, it is true. Can you win a Super Bowl with a good running game and defense? Sure you can.

But is it the best method? Not by a long shot. What about the type of defense you have? Can you win with a great run defense or is pass defense more important? Pass defense is more important to winning Super Bowls, by a long shot.

This all emphasizes something we hear almost daily: the NFL is a passing league.

Do not buy the “run game and defense” myths any longer. Through an extensive study of DVOA and yards per attempt from 2001-2015, I found a vast amount of statistical evidence in every measure I tested that supports the assertion that the passing game far more important than the running game. The passing game is more important not according the majority of measures, not most measures, but in EVERY SINGLE MEASURE I COMPLETED.

Together, we are going to go through them until you are convinced that acquiring a franchise QB and passing the football is by far the best way, and only realistic way, to win Super Bowls. Throughout this entire piece I will rely on league rankings in each category as the basis for my analyses.

We’re first going to go through yards per attempt rankings, both in the air and on the ground. Yards per attempt is a measure of efficiency in both categories, so I use it as a true indication of how good an offense is as a unit.

For the teams in the Super Bowl from 2003-2015 (YPA has only been recorded since 2003), teams that made the Super Bowl ranked…

Passing YPA: 7.81 out of 32 NFL teams

Rushing YPA: 16.85 out of 32 NFL teams

 

How about just Super Bowl winners:

Passing YPA: 10.08 out of 32 NFL teams

Rushing YPA: 18.62 out of 32 NFL teams

 

That is a pretty stark difference. The percentage of Super Bowl winners that had…

A top 10 pass YPA: 53.8%

A top 10 rush YPA: 15.4%

 

How about just Super Bowl teams?

Top 10 pass YPA: 69.2%

Top 10 rush YPA: 23.1%

 

Having a top passing attack simply increases your odds of going to the Super Bowl much more than a top rushing attack does. In other words, a proficient passing attack is a prerequisite to success in the NFL, while a proficient rushing attack, sadly, is not.

Over three quarters (76.9%) of teams that won the Super Bowl during this time period had a higher ranked passing YPA than rushing YPA. Of all Super Bowl teams, 76% had a higher ranked passing YPA than rushing YPA.

According to my analysis, you can have a good running game, but that had better always be secondary to a passing attack. Passing the football should always be your focus if you want to achieve success in the NFL.

This philosophy holds up on defense, too. When you take a look at Defensive DVOA, an advanced metric that analyzes game situations and looks at the true efficiency of an overall unit, having a top passing defense is far more valuable than having a top rushing defense.

Super Bowl winning teams that were in the top 10 of Total DEF DVOA ranks:

Pass DVOA rank: 2.25  

Rush DVOA rank: 5.38

 

Both Super Bowl participants rankings:    

Pass DVOA rank: 7.27     

Rush DVOA rank: 13.27

 

What about the percentages?

% of teams that won the Super Bowl with a better Pass D than Run D? 86.7%

% of teams that were in the top 10 overall DEF DVOA with a better Pass D than Run D: 71.4%

% of Super Bowl winners that had a top 10 Run Defense: 53.3%   Pass Defense: 60%

 

Having a superior pass defense is much more valuable than having a superior run defense not only in general, but it also is more important in achieving the status of a top 10 unit.

So, by passing and rushing yards per attempt (YPA) it is clear that passing is superior to rushing, and by Defensive DVOA passing is superior to rushing. Need more?

Offensive DVOA comes up with the same conclusions.

Super Bowl winning teams ranked in the top 10 in total OFF DVOA:

Pass DVOA rank: 4.25    

Run DVOA rank: 9.5

 

Super Bowl participants that rank in the top 10 total OFF DVOA:

Pass DVOA rank: 4.46   

Rush DVOA rank: 7.92

 

The percentages:

% of teams that won Super Bowl w/ better pass rank than rushing rank: 53.3%

% of Super Bowl participants that were in Top 10 Total OFF DVOA w/ better pass rank than rush rank: 70%

% of Super Bowl winners that had top 10 Rush rank: 40%

% of Super Bowl winners that had top 10 Pass rank: 53.3%

% of Super Bowl participants that had top 10 rushing rank: 50%

% of Super Bowl participants that had top 10 passing rank: 63.3%

 

I could continue, but this is getting redundant.

In essence, every one of the aforementioned metrics supports the following conclusion: the passing game is far more important than the running game. Whether you’re defending it or throwing it, it doesn’t matter. Success passing and defending the pass are demonstrably more important than success running and stopping the run. The way the league is trending, the NFL will continue to revolve around the passing game for the forseeable future.

This brings me to my final point: without a QB you aren’t a real contender. Since the passing game is so important, the quarterback the most critical component on the team by a long shot.

The % of teams that have won a Super Bowl with a top 10 rushing offense and without a top 10 passing offense to accompany it: 13.3%

The % of teams that have won a Super Bowl with a top 10 passing offense and without a top 10 rushing offense to accompany it: 26.7%

Double.

The % of teams that have participated in a Super Bowl with a top 10 rushing offense and without a top 10 passing offense to accompany it: 6.67%

The % of teams that have participated in a Super Bowl with a top 10 passing offense and without a top 10 rushing offense to accompany it: 20%

More than triple.

What about defense? Is it more important than passing offense? Total offense?

% of teams that have won a Super Bowl with a top 10 DVOA defense without a top 10 DVOA passing offense: 26.67%

% of teams that have won a Super Bowl with a top 10 DVOA passing offense without a top 10 DVOA defense: 33.33%

% of teams that have participated in a Super Bowl with a top 10 DVOA defense without a Top 10 DVOA passing offense: 16.67%

% of teams that have participated in a Super Bowl with a top 10 DVOA passing offense without a Top 10 DVOA defense: 40%

Again, the odds show that passing offenses are much more likely to carry a defense to a Super Bowl than defenses are to do the same.

What about a top 10 run game and a defense carrying a pass offense? That happens, right? Actually, no Super Bowl Winners in 15 years (!!!) have had a top 10 running game and defense without a top 10 passing game to go with it.

Meanwhile, 20% of the same Super Bowl winners have had a top 10 offense carry a run game and defense that both ranked outside the top 10 in DVOA.

“You win championships with a strong defense and run game.”

Myth busted.

You want to win a Super Bowl? Pass the ball and get a quarterback.