It’s already Week 9 in the 2022 NFL season, and your Buffalo Bills are 6-1. Coming off the worst victory in the history of double-digit wins – at least according to some fans – the BIlls take on the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Wilson Jets. ‘Take Flight’ fans have enjoyed a good defense in 2022, but Zach Wilson remains as wildly unpredictable as his rookie season.
In what has become a completely predictable outcome, Three Props and a Cloud of Dust had another winning day as we went 2-1 in Wk 8. Bass kicked two FGs as the Green Bay D held tough in the RZ a couple of times, and Aaron Rodgers stayed under 237.5 passing yards. Gabe Davis’ receiving yards total was the one loss, but he had at least two drops on 7 targets, which was his highest total so far this year, so we’ll say the opportunity was in line with the analysis, just the execution fell short. Shake that one off and move on to Week 9 and the Jets. Let’s get that analysis money.
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First Things First
Here are a few rules to keep your betting a fun, enjoyable hobby.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Don’t chase a bet.
- Don’t bet on what you don’t understand
- Check the other sportsbooks’ lines
- See Rule #1.
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National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.
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Lastly, these are recommendations, not guarantees. Act accordingly.
Game Script
Buckle up, Mafia, the Jets’ defense is for real. The most intriguing matchup this week is the Bills passing game against the Jets’ pass defense. This is the best secondary the Bills have faced this year. Read that again.
The Jets' Pass D is legit (SIS):
3rd in EPA allowed & Pts Saved
5th in QB Rating & Yds/Att
In CBs, Sauce is 4th Pts Saved, 8th for EPA/Tgt, 12th in Comp % Allowed— BuffaLow Ceilings (@LowBuffa) November 2, 2022
And their run D is better than expected too.
Jets' Run D isn't terrible either(SIS):
2nd in Yds/Att
5th in EPA/Att
5th in Stuff % (0 or <0 yds gained) at 22.7%
11th in Pts Saved https://t.co/3RwExGBDfS— BuffaLow Ceilings (@LowBuffa) November 2, 2022
The Jets’ effectiveness on defense goes beyond their pass to include the pash rush also. UberHansen notes,
Making life easier on the Jets’ secondary is a pass rush that is comparable to the Bills. New York’s blitz rate is 28th most in the NFL (15.6%) but they are producing the 3rd highest pressure rate (26.4%). The trio of Carl Lawson (DE), John Franklin-Myers (DE), and Quinnen WIlliams (DT) have been a problem for opposing OLs accounting for 46 pressures and 12.5 sacks.
The Bills should win on the disparity between their defense and the Jets’ offense, but the other side of the ball could be a struggle. Watch for an increased number of broken plays where Allen scrambles to create time to pass or ends up running. When Allen is pressured this season, he targets WRs: WRs have 35 of 53 targets generated when Allen is under pressure (SIS). His Intended Air Yards on those throws averages a depth of 16.8 yards. If a good Jet’s secondary has those WRs covered, Allen will have to bring his eyes down to Motor Singletary, Dawson Knox, and possibly the newly acquired Nyheim Hines.
For a thorough preview, check out UberHansen’s Game Matchups Preview.
Last updated: 11/6/22 6:30am
Dawson Knox Receptions
| o | u | ||
| Bet US | |||
| CSR | 3.5 | +129 | -179 |
| DK | 3.5 | +135 | -180 |
| FD | 3.5 | +126 | -162 |
Our first Knox prop for the season. Most of the reasoning there has not yet been a bet on Knox are game script related – it simply hasn’t panned out that a Bills’ opponent had high enough quality CB play at both outside positions to warrant the Bills highlighting their – at-best – No. 3 receiving option. Enter the Jets, who boast CBs with the 5th and 17th best QB rating against when WRs are targeted in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner, respectively (SIS).
Update, Reed and Gardner can’t play against every receiver. The Jets D has been solid, but they are vulnerable to TEs. They have allowed the 9th most yds/gm to TEs (59.4) and surrendered positive EPA to TEs on 61.2% of plays, which is 5th worst in the league (SIS). CJ Mosely, Kwon Alexander, and Quincy Williams lead the Jets’ LBs in snaps. Opposing TEs have 17 catches on 21 targets for 33.9 yds/gm against just those three.
Consider these numbers against who the Jets have faced at TE.
- Mark Andrews (5 rec/52 yds)
- David Njoku (3/32)/Harrison Bryant (3/45)
- Hayden Hurst (1/7)
- Pat Freiermuth (7/85)
- MIke Gesicki (1/30)/Durham Smythe (1/8)
- Robert Tunyan (10/90)
- Greg Dulcich (6/51)
- Hunter Henry (1/22)/Jonnu Smith (3/10)
Andrews is one of the best in the league, and Freiermuth has had a promising start to his career, but most of the other numbers in this list suggest a solid day for Knox.
Recommendation: o3.5 at DK, 0.5u
Bills’ Total Points Range/Band
| Bet US | 21-27 | +250 |
| CSR | ||
| DK | 21-30 | +145 |
| FD |
Buffalo has scored fewer than 23 pts once, and it took 120* heat in Miami to limit them, and they were still one dirted Allen pass from scoring 26.
Like the game script mentioned, the Jets’ D is better than we’ve come to expect for the past few years. They’re 11th in pts/gm allowed at 19.9, they’re strength is in defending the pass.
The range of 21-30 at DK is getting plus money, and so is 31-40 (+195). The Bills have two games where they scored outside of those two bands combined – 41 against Tennessee and the 19 versus Miami. Buffalo remains mostly healthy on offense, but the Jets’ D should prevent them from suffering a complete blowout. One concern would be Zach Wilson handing the Bills extra possessions with multiple turnovers, but watch for Wilson to be reigned in after 3 TOs while facing the Pats.
Recommendation: 0.5u on 21-30 at DK, backed up w 0.25 on 31-40.
Greg Rousseau Sacks
| o | u | ||
| Bet US | |||
| CSR | |||
| DK | 0.75 | +170 | -235 |
| FD |
What if I told you this is the Jets’ starting offensive line for Sunday?
- LT Duane Brown
- LG Laken Tomlinson
- C Connor McGovern
- RG Mike Stuchik
- RT Mike Remmer
Would you know those names after Duane Brown? Would you realize that Mike Stuchik is a name I just made up, but the real RG is the no more identifiable Nate Herbig? No. Really.
The Jets have been forced down into the OL discount bin by a lot of injuries. To his credit, Herbig has only allowed 5 pressures on 169 pass snaps since he became a starter in Wk 4, but he is paired on the right side with Mike Remmers, whom the Jets signed to their active roster about 3 weeks ago. This will be his first game action in 2022. As they rotate up and down the line, Groot and Von Miller should have success facing off with the borderline players New Jersey currently has on the right side.
Recommendation: o0.75, 0.5u
Conclusion
If you’ve followed this space for any length of time, you know this article tends towards more conservative betting lines. If you’ve been looking for +575 parlays that only hit once a season, you’re in the wrong space. Solid, consistent wins with real, free money is the goal. Let’s get it.
Tail or fade, I want to see those winning bet slips on Twitter @LowBuffa!
Record to date: 16-5, +5.5u
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