With the 2018 NFL Draft approaching rapidly, we’re hearing a lot of rumors about the Bills being enamored with QB Josh Allen and experts being sure of the Bills moving up to pick the Wyoming product. These rumors, of course, reflect in myriad mock drafts. I really don’t buy into them, and here are my five reasons why Allen will not be the Bills’ QB choice.
1. The Bills’ front office doesn’t value his biggest traits like others do.
Looking at Allen as a prospect, what really jumps out almost instantly are his size (6’5″ 237lbs), mobility, and especially how live his arm is.
22 personnel PA strike for a TD vs. possibly quarters coverage.
Safety bites on the post by the TE, WR widens his stem, gets the CB turned around and heads to the post. Props to the WR for the all hands catch.
Allen almost succumbs to the turf monster but he buries the throw. pic.twitter.com/jYiv5oBq0G
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) January 18, 2018
A lot of NFL people fall in love with those traits and trust they can clean all the other deficiencies prospects like him have. Not the Bills’ brass. If that were the case, it would be fair to expect them to give a longer look at former 5th-round pick Cardale Jones, no? I’m not saying Jones is Allen, but it’s clear some similarities are there. Jones is a big, mobile and strong-armed QB, who had success at collegiate level and showed some interesting things in his few opportunities with the Bills.
A barometer pass for every QB evaluation. Right hash to the far sideline on an intermediate out breaking route. Nice throw by Allen. pic.twitter.com/UBL7TRdZ48
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) February 8, 2018
If Allen’s traits are enough to make this Bills FO sell the farm to trade up for him, I think Jones’s would be enough to at least keep him on the roster for a longer look, making the Nathan Peterman pick unnecessary.
2. Allen’s stats scream “too risky!”
It’s a general consensus Allen is the biggest “boom or bust” prospect among this year’s QB class, and for a good reason. Despite the elite measurables, some of his numbers were less than ideal, and against suspect competition. When he faced better programs and the speed of the game came up, his flaws were even more apparent.
Allen throws the interception vs. Iowa
That doesn’t translate well to the pro level. Comparing his numbers to the other top five QB prospects in this draft class (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson, and Rudolph), you will see some bigger discrepancies the majority of the time, with him being dead last on the list in a lot of important statistics.
For example, take total yards, completion %, and QB rating on passes from 0-9 yards.
Or take total yards, INT %, yards per attempt, or QB rating when facing pressure.
The numbers show any big investment to move up for him is far too risky, leading us to the next topic…
3. The Process is all about calculated risks.
Brandon Beane already showed he isn’t afraid of making big moves, but the majority of the time he has the numbers on his side. Look at Watkins and Dareus’s cases. These were two big time names who weren’t producing at the level of their lofty draft status or huge contract investment. They were moved for assets that could be used in a potential trade up for a QB and more cap space for next year’s free agency. Beane is wheeling and dealing with a clear plan in his mind; I really doubt he will trust a boom or bust guy like Allen to be the centerpiece of this entire well rounded plan, increasing the chances of failure.
4. They have three options who fit what they’re looking for.
If you look at the QBs brought in by Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, you’ll see a theme: smart guys who can make good decisions from the pocket and throw an accurate ball, not necessarily having the strongest arms in the game. AJ McCarron fits this description, and that’s also the reason this FO chose Nathan Peterman over Cardale Jones.
If Beane is able to trade up to the top 5, it will be for one of the guys who shows those qualities and more. Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield are that type of QB and have a plus arm and great productivity against top collegiate competition.
Ridiculous play by Darnold…Sometimes his lower body and movement in the pocket is chaotic, BUT sometimes it serves a purpose. Check out what it does to the safety here…Dime
Scouting Report: https://t.co/e60h7PVXeJ pic.twitter.com/5WRguTd4DT
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) March 27, 2018
They’re as close as you can have to a sure thing and the types of guys I see Beane making a big move for.
5. They have better options without needing to trade up.
After evaluating all of the QBs, Beane could come to the conclusion it will be better to keep all of his picks and add a lot of talent to his roster by settling for Lamar Jackson at #12 or #22. Jackson is talented and produced more than Allen against better competition.
Another option could be Mason Rudolph at #22 or later. In both cases, we’re talking about guys who had better numbers than Allen, facing better competition.
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) March 20, 2018
When you analyze everything, it’s really hard to believe Beane, with so many options, will risk everything throwing all of his hopes into Josh Allen. I just don’t see it happening.